Kelley Peter Round 1 Mock Draft 1.0

The best weekend of the year is now just 20 days away. The Saints showed on Monday that they are just as excited as we are, trading future picks to the Eagles to add another first rounder in the year’s draft. Are they simply trying to get premium players that can help them win this year, or are they planning to package those picks and move up to snag their QB of the future? Let’s jump right in and find out!

Which NFC South team will call Malik Willis’ name on Draft Day after missing out on Deshaun Watson?

1. Jaguars – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

The Jaguars don’t get cute with this pick. While Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux have tons of upside, Hutchinson is the safest pick in this draft and also has quite a high ceiling himself. The Heisman runner-up was incredibly productive his senior year at Michigan tallying 14 sacks. He also tested extremely well, posting agility scores above the 96th percentile. By all accounts he is a hard worker and leader as well, which is much needed in Jacksonville after the turmoil of the Urban Meyer era.

2. Lions – Travon Walker, DL, Georgia

The Lions are disappointed to miss out on the hometown kid, but the league will play the world’s smallest violin for them as they select the freak show out of Georgia, Travon Walker. Athletically, Walker tested with a 9.99 Relative Athletic Score and measured out similarly to former #1 pick Myles Garrett. The biggest knock on the long-armed disruptor was his lack of elite sack production in college (6 sacks last season). I had a similar fear until I turned on the tape. Unlike the other EDGEs at the top of this class, Walker was not lined up wide and told to pin his ears back to rush the passer all game. The Dawgs, a defense with several future first round picks, treated him like their best DL and moved him around like a chess piece all game long. He played Nose Tackle, 3-Tech, 5-Tech, and even as a Wide Rusher on occasion and constantly ruined plays for the offense. You can see his bend as a true EDGE in his tape against Evan Neal of Alabama. However his arm length, strength, and agility allow him to excel all over the DL. He has All-Pro potential and can help Detroit’s DL in many different ways.

3. Texans – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

The Texans need playmakers everywhere, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The restructuring of Laremy Tunsil and development of Tytus Howard at Tackle last season makes me shy away from taking a Tackle this high. Hamilton and Gardner were also in contention, but ultimately EDGE is a more premium position, so Thibodeaux is the pick. Kayvon burst on to the scene as a freshman at Oregon after being the #1 recruit in the country. His combination of speed and power gives him elite upside and his game shows flashes of Khalil Mack. He needs to add more moves to his pass rush arsenal. Oftentimes at Oregon he would just rely on his athletic traits to overwhelm Pac-12 OTs. He also needs to be more disciplined in his run game assignments. Occasionally he will be so focused on beating the man in front of him that he will miss his gap and lead to hole in the running game. With the right coaching (in this case Lovie Smith), Kayvon should be able to refine his game and develop into a scary EDGE in the NFL.

4. Jets – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

The Jets biggest weakness on defense is at the CB position. While Robert Saleh has preached the importance of pass rush over coverage, the top 3 EDGE options are off the board here. So, adding the draft’s top Corner is quite the consolation prize. Gardner had great production at Cincinnati despite rarely being thrown at. He is long and disruptive, has great ball skills, and ran in the 4.4s. If Bearcat fans drank every time a commentator repeated the statistic “Sauce Gardner has never allowed a touchdown in college,” then I’d be the first to call their Uber home. Nevertheless, it is an incredibly impressive feat. He has been battle tested against the likes of Georgia, Notre Dame, and Alabama and always was up to the task. He should be a good starting Corner from Day 1 in the NFL, and has true lock down CB1 potential.

*TRADE* Saints give up picks 16 and 19 for pick 5

5. Saints – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

BOOM! Our first blockbuster deal. The Saints added an extra first round pick and now have the package to move up one slot ahead of Carolina and get their choice of QB. Is this too high for Willis? In my opinion yes, but that is what it takes to land a guy with the kind of upside Malik possesses. Willis is a dynamic runner with a huge arm, just the type of traits to make any GM salivate. If he gets the right coaching, he has all the tools to be a game-breaking QB in this league. Now for the cons: His pocket awareness is poor (part of this was Liberty’s awful OL), his decision making is questionable at times, and his accuracy, particularly on intermediate routes, is not where it needs to be. I see a raw Jalen Hurts with a bigger arm. He is going to need some time to sit, and New Orleans has both Jameis and Dalton as bridge QBs to let him develop year 1. Swing for the fences, New Orleans!

6. Panthers – Kenny Pickett, QB, Panthers

The fact of the matter is, Matt Rhule is coaching for his job this season. One more down year in Carolina and they are likely finding a new Head Coach. I don’t know about you, but if I have one year to win games and Sam Darnold is my QB? I may as well just put in my resignation now. Instead, Rhule opts to reunite with Pickett who he recruited and got a commitment from at Temple before both decided to go their separate ways. Rhule clearly values Pickett’s skillset as a strong decision maker with solid mobility. He does not have a great arm and you will not find him making defenders miss to extend plays, but he is clearly a step up from Darnold. Pickett is also ready to play from Day 1, which is huge for Rhule in his year of judgement.

7. Giants – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

What a dream scenario for the Giants. They trade back from 5 to pick up two extra first round picks, and STILL get their choice of any OT in the draft. The Giants opt for the sure thing in Alabama OT Evan Neal. The 6’7″, 345 pound Neal carries his weight better than any Tackle I have seen. He has been battle tested by the best in the SEC for years. He played both sides at Alabama the past two years, and should be a plug and play RT opposite of Andrew Thomas.

8. Falcons – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

It’s been a tough go for Falcons fans recently. Last year they lost Atlanta legend Julio Jones. This year they moved former MVP Matt Ryan. Oh, and their WR1, Calvin Ridley is suspended for at least a year for gambling. Despite a promising rookie season from last year’s #4 pick, Kyle Pitts, the Falcons offense is in shambles. They absolutely need playmakers on the outside. Garrett Wilson fits their needs perfectly. He is a great separator and has big-play ability after the catch with his speed. He’s been making plays at OSU since his freshman year and has been equally productive from the slot and on the outside. He is not enough to make the Falcons offense good by himself, but he and Pitts are a strong first step in that process.

9. Seahawks – Ikem “Ickey” Ekwonu, OL, NC State

When I set out to do this mock, I sure did not expect Ickey to fall this far. That’s how these things can work out on draft day though, and the Seahawks get the steal of the draft. With multiple losses on the OL, Ekwonu fits their biggest need outside of QB. He is already a punishing run blocker and continues to make strides in his already solid pass blocking skills. Neal is the more refined pass protector currently, but in many evaluator’s minds, Ickey has the highest ceiling of any Tackle (and maybe even player) in this class. He will slot in at LT for Seattle for the next 10 years.

10. Jets – Drake London, WR, USC

After spending #4 on a shutdown CB, the Jets use their second pick to land Zach Wilson a big-bodied WR1. London is a flat out baller. He played both basketball and football at USC, which is evident in his game as a contested catcher. The 6’5″, 210 pound London has a massive catch radius and just straight produced at USC. His game reminds me a lot of Bengals WR Tee Higgins, who led the league in yards on contested catch situations last season. He would add a whole new element to a Jets WR room that already features Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, giving the big-armed Wilson a guy to win 50/50 balls deep, which is something we saw work for 2nd year QB Joe Burrow last year after they took WRs early in two straight drafts.

*TRADE* Eagles give up picks 15, 83, and 162 to move for pick 11

11. Eagles – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Much like in Lou’s mock, the Eagles see a falling Kyle Hamilton and get aggressive to go get him. This trade makes sense for Philly who has an abundance of picks the next few years after their deal with New Orleans. Washington, who just saw Wilson and London go off the board, moves back and recoups a third rounder they gave away in the Carson Wentz deal along with a 5th rounder. Hamilton is rumored to fall after a slower 40 time, but his tape shows an explosive, instinctual game wrecker as a run-supporting box safety and in coverage. He tested well outside of the 40, and I still have him as a top 5 prospect in this draft. The Eagles nab a defensive leader for the foreseeable future.

12. Vikings – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

This was the easiest pick of the mock for me. The Vikings desperately need help in the CB room and Stingley has top 5 upside in this class. He has dealt with injuries that have led to inconsistency the past two years, but just this week he proved his was back to full strength with a 4.44 40 yard dash and a 38.5 inch vertical. His 2019 film as a true freshman on LSU’s title team is extremely impressive. As an 18 year old he racked up 6 picks and showed off elite ball skills every game. His two weakest games from that season were when he faced Alabama’s Devonta Smith and Florida’s combo of Van Jefferson and Kyle Pitts, but overall he was as good as any Corner in college football that year. In Minnesota, he will rejoin practice sparring sessions with former teammate and now All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson.

13. Texans – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

The Texans, who already took Thibodeaux, add another defensive building block here in CB Trent McDuffie. While not the longest corner, McDuffie makes up for it with elite coverage skills and speed. Washington has a long line of NFL CBs and McDuffie should be no different. Whether he is deployed on the outside or in the slot, he will help this Texans defense get back to being NFL level.

14. Ravens – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

Man, this is such a Ravens pick. They are known for drafting BPA, and they get the best on the board here in the form of freakish Nose Tackle Jordan Davis. The 340 pound Davis was a destructive run stopper at Georgia this season, and tested as the most athletic DT prospect of all-time with a 10.0 Relative Athletic Score. That athleticism leads me to believe that Davis has some untapped potential as an interior pass rusher, UGA just had too many elite pass rushers to even need Davis to do so. The Ravens find their next Haloti Ngata who will punish AFC North Interior Lineman for the near future.

15. Commanders – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

So the Commanders move back from 11, pick up two additional picks, and still land the top WR on the board. What a win-win move all-around. Jameson Williams is without question the top deep threat in this class. He strikes fear into Defensive Coordinators, and should give Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson more room to operate. Critics will point toward Jameson’s late breakout age and one year of production, but it appears OSU may have just overlooked Williams in a crowded WR room. He is recovering from an ACL, but appears to be on track to make a full recovery. Washington finally gets a weapon opposite of Scary Terry.

16. Giants – Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE, Florida State

I swear to you, I am not a Giants fan. But wow, they are the winners of this draft so far. First Evan Neal falls to them at #7, and now they get an impact at their other biggest need in EDGE Jermaine Johnson. Johnson had an extremely productive year at Florida State after transferring from Georgia’s crowded DL room. He also went to the Senior Bowl and tore it up. I still think Johnson can develop his arsenal as a pass rusher, but is athletic enough to beat some Tackles and should immediately be a plus run defender. Great value again for the G-Men.

17. Chargers – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

The Chargers love how the board falls and get their pick of Tier 2 OT prospects to line up across from All-Pro Rashawn Slater. There have been rumors that the NFL teams may not be as high on Cross as some experts, but this seems like the perfect slot for him. Cross is not a mauling run blocker, but where he excels is in Pass Pro, perfect for keeping star QB Justin Herbert upright. I’m sure Charger fans still have nightmares of Maxx Crosby racking up pressures against them last year in the decisive Week 18 overtime contest. Now with two athletic, pass protecting Tackles, no one should be touching Herbert.

18. Eagles – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Okay, I admit it. This is a Treylon Burks stan account. He is my WR1 in this class, and I can’t believe he is gonna fall as far as I am seeing in mock drafts. He is 6’2″, 205 and his tape is unreal. Wanna see him catch a 15 yarder on the sidelines and turn on the jets to outrun Alabama’s entire secondary? It’s on there. Wanna see him “Moss” Ole Miss CBs on back-to-back plays? It’s on there. Wanna see him catch a screen and go 80 yards to the house? It’s on there! The things this man can do at his size are remarkable. I see him as an AJ Brown replica (another guy the NFL missed on in round 1). He is not the crisp route runner that people fall in love with, but his body and his production is precisely what I look for in a WR. He will pair very well with Devonta Smith, who already provides the Eagles with a slender frame and smooth route-running.

19. Giants – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

My God! Someone stop the Giants. The rich get richer in this draft. The Giants, who are set to lose CB James Bradberry, fill the void with Florida product Kaiir Elam. The Giants just hired former Ravens DC Don “Wink” Martindale this offseason and what does he like to do? Blitz the house and leave his Corners on islands in man coverage. That is exactly where Elam excels. He is a long, press-man corner who does not need over-top Safety help. Wink needs good press-man corners for his defense to work, and the Giants nab one here at 19.

20. Steelers – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin’s Malik Willis infatuation has come to an end in this mock. They settle for Desmond Ridder, a 4-year starter at Cincinnati, who got better each year in school. Ridder does not have the biggest arm in this class, but it is certainly good. His accuracy leaves something to be desired at times which reared it’s ugly head against Alabama (2022) and 2nd half vs Georgia (2021). I do think Ridder, who tested very well at the combine, has some untapped potential as a runner. The Bearcats did not utilize him in this aspect as much as Malik Willis, Sam Howell, or Matt Corral were used, but that could be his saving grace in the league if the accuracy is never fully there. He also seems to be an excellent leader in the locker room which an organization as strong as Pittsburgh’s values.

21. Patriots – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

This feels like an excellent fit all-around. If the Bills playoff game showed us anything, it’s that the Patriots need to get faster on both offense and defense. Olave can provide that speed element to an offense that lacks it. He is also an excellent route runner. His game reminds me of a cross between Devonta Smith and Calvin Ridley. His biggest con is that he is slight. This shows up on film as he is one of the worst in this class in yards after catch, rarely breaking even the arm tackles of CBs. He also can be jammed at the line by some physical Corners. He is not necessarily my cup of tea as a team’s WR1, but I think he can be a great WR2. If you are looking for a guy to get open and stretch the field, Olave is just the guy for you.

22. Packers – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

It’s no secret that the departure of Devante Adams led to a huge hole for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. With WR’s flying off the board in the middle of the first round, the Packers finally do it: They draft a WR in round 1! Dotson has the best hands in this entire class. He is a little undersized, but he is quick and always seems to be open. Going from Sean Clifford lame ducks out routes to Aaron Rodgers deep balls has to be the best feeling in the world.

23. Cardinals – Zion Johnson, G, Boston College

The Cardinals could use a CB or IDL here, but ultimately I think addressing the IOL should come first for them. This team only goes as far as Kyler Murray can take them, so the more time he has the better. Zion’s size, combine testing, and Senior Bowl dominance has seen him rise to the top Guard spot in this draft. He shows some true nastiness on his tape in both the run and pass game. This feels like a very safe bet on a guy that will be a rock solid starter on the OL for a decade, and he is ready to start right away.

24. Cowboys – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

It’s been a less than ideal off-season for Cowboy fans. They’ve lost Amari Cooper, La’el Collins, Randy Gregory, and more. I thought about OL here, but ultimately what made them scary last year was their pass rush. Karlaftis can fill much of the void left by Gregory at a far cheaper price tag. Karlaftis is a powerful, explosive EDGE that was productive in his 3 years at Purdue. He would slot in nicely and get plenty of 1 on 1 opportunities on a DL with Dexter Lawrence and Micah Parsons. He has the traits to be a plus run defender as well as long as he stays disciplined in his gap assignments.

25. Bills – Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

The Bills have been looking for a CB2 opposite of Tre’Davious White for the last few years. White missed their playoff run last year and will be coming back from a torn ACL this season. In a conference with so many high-powered passing offenses (KC, CIN, LAC, DEN, LAV, etc.) they need to have reliable Corners along with their elite Safety duo. Booth is a perfect fit for their need. The Clemson product was a highly ranked recruit who finally got an opportunity the last two seasons. He can play multiple different coverages, has elite ball skills, and can blow up screens with his tackling ability. He has not played as many snaps over the years as the top corners in this class, but Booth should be a quality CB2 with CB1 potential in a few years.

*TRADE* Falcons give up picks 43 and 74 to move for pick 26

26. Falcons – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

The Falcons, who came into this draft with four day 2 picks, use two of them to move back into the first round and secure their QB of the future. Doing this secures a 5th year option for Corral and jumps in front of other teams trying to trade up with KC or CIN at 30 and 31 to grab a QB. The Falcons signed Marcus Mariota at a bridge, but it’s no secret they’ll be looking for a franchise QB here soon. Corral is my QB1 in this class. He has an arm to make all the throws, has good mobility, and greatly reduced his turnover-worthy plays this season. He is a more accurate passer than Willis and Ridder at this stage of their careers. Here Corral gets a great situation. He teams up with Arthur Smith who designed a scheme that turned Tannehill into a top 12 QB when the rest of the league had given up on him. Corral will get to throw to freak TE/WR Kyle Pitts and shifty WR Garrett Wilson. There is still work to do, but this dreadful offense all of a sudden looks like one of the most exciting young offenses in the league.

27. Buccaneers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

Tampa Bay is still uncertain if they will have the funds to bring back Ndamukong Suh for next year, so they opt to go with a direct replacement here along the DL. I am not as high on Wyatt as most. For one, he turned 24 last week. He wasn’t super productive at UGA (2.5 sacks last season) despite having more 1 on 1 situations as the 4th best DL on his own team (remember the name Jalen Carter for the 2023 Draft). Despite these knocks, Wyatt is an elite athlete and he showed that at the Combine. He has all the traits you look for at 3-Tech, if the right team can help him put it all together. At age 24, he will need to be good soon in order for this pick to be worth it. He will go from playing next to Jordan Davis at NT to Vita Vea and should continue to have that freedom to get after the QB.

28. Packers – Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M

After securing Jahan Dotson at 22, the debate for this pick was to draft an OL or an EDGE to replace Za’Darius Smith. With a deep EDGE class, the Packers opt for Kenyon Green to play Guard with Elgton Jenkins kicking out to RT. Ironically, Green reminds me a lot of Jenkins. He played 4 different positions on the OL last year alone for the Aggies, and gives Green Bay even more versatility on their Line. He is a day 1 starter at Guard.

29. Chiefs – Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota

The biggest need for the Chiefs is EDGE plain and simple. Chris Jones is an All-Pro on the interior, but they desperately need some juice on the EDGE. If there’s one thing Mafe has in spades, it’s JUICE. Mafe posted a 9.91 Relative Athletic Score after an incredible Combine which featured a 4.53 40 yard dash and a 38 inch vertical. His athleticsim shows up on tape as he blows by Big 10 Tackles. He still needs to develop more of a plan when rushing, but his traits cannot be taught. He got better every year at Minnesota, tallying 7 sacks and 10 TFLs in 12 games his senior season. He offers the unlimited upside that the Chiefs need to start hitting on in order to extend their Super Bowl window with Patrick Mahomes.

30. Chiefs – Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

After trading Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have another hole on their roster. Sure they signed Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but they need someone that can eventually develop into a WR1. While raw, Watson has that kind of upside. The 6’4″, 208 pound Watson has shot up big boards after winning “Best WR” at the Senior Bowl and destroying the combine with a 4.36 40 yard dash and 38.5 inch vertical jump. He reminds me a lot of Chase Claypool as a prospect. He wasn’t used to the fullest of his abilities as a receiver in college, but the Bison used him on a variety of kick returns, deep routes, end arounds, and even backfield handoffs. He is a versatile weapon that Andy Reid can find all sorts of ways to utilize in space, but also has the body to develop into an Alpha WR1 someday.

31. Bengals – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

Cincinnati has done a great job retooling their 31st ranked OL this offseason. La’el Collins and Alex Cappa represent massive upgrades at RT and RG respectively. The addition of Ted Karras who has split time at LG and C the past two seasons makes this pick possible. The Bengals have second year Guards Jackson Carman and D’Ante Smith waiting in the wings, but that shouldn’t stop them from taking a better IOL prospect at 31 if the board falls this way. The Bengals were inefficient in short yardage and red zone situations all of last season, and this showed up quite a bit in every playoff game. The uber-athletic Linderbaum fits like a glove in OL Coach Frank Pollack’s wide zone run scheme. His tape clears any Center prospect in recent memory. A more efficient run game and improved pass protection should not only help Cincinnati in short yardage situations, but it also makes them not so reliant on big plays to consistently move the ball down the field. Adding a Corner (Kyler Gordon, my pick in my Bengals mock last week, was in play here) or pass rusher also makes a lot of sense at 31, but with how the board fell, the Bengals should take the best talent on the board who will let Joe Burrow more efficiently cook.

32. Lions – Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan

Lions fans will be sad to miss the opportunity to take Michigan legend Aidan Hutchinson at 2, but they keep Dax Hill in-state at 32. Detroit needs help all over their Secondary, and Hill is the type of Swiss army knife that can support them in multiple ways. He played primarily in the slot this past year and was always making plays on the ball. The former 5 star recruit is a willing tackler in the run and screen game, plays good man coverage in the slot, and shows the speed and balls skills to potentially play single-high Safety at the next level. The Lions still need to address LB, but with pick 34 in their possession and both of the top off-ball LBs on the board, they decide to add a versatile DB at 32.

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