My brothers and sisters the NFL Draft is in TEN DAYS! I’m giddier than a sorority girl meeting her Big for the first time. Giddier than Myles Garrett lining up across from Bobby Hart. Giddier than Bill Belichick facing a rookie QB. Giddier than Urban Meyer… well you get the point. I figure what better way to go into the 2 week mark than to plant my flag on 10 prospects. I’ll tell you about “My Guys” a.k.a. prospects I LOVE! And then give you five prospects I HATE! Okay, so I don’t actually hate them. I hope they all prove me wrong and have Hall of Fame careers. However all five are commonly predicted to go in the mid-first round, and I have second round grades on them. I will explain why. Let’s hop in!

Prospects I Love

Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

I said it in the Mock Draft 1.0 and I’ll say it again: This is a Treylon Burks Stan account. I love everything about this dude’s game and he is exactly what I look for in an Alpha WR1 in today’s league. He is 6’2″, 225 pounds and uses his body well in contested catch situations down the field. However, Arkansas used him in a variety of ways you rarely see from a WR his size. 24.8% of Burks targets in his final two seasons came behind the line of scrimmage. Screens and Jet Sweeps were commonplace for the Razorbacks who just wanted to get the athletic Burks in space. He also returned kicks for them as a Freshman – something you rarely see from a 225 pounder. They’d line him up in the slot to gain mismatches and also use him outside on deep routes. He leads all WRs in this class in Yards Per Route Run vs. Press Coverage. The only real knock on Burks was he ran in the 4.5s at the Combine. However this doesn’t worry me. Burks is not a track star. Treylon is a massive mover who can excel when he hits his top speed. On a 91 yard screen pass against Georgia Southern, he hit 22.6 MPH. One of the fastest top speeds by any player in College Football last season. He caught a sideline pass against Alabama and outran every one of their DBs to the endzone. Treylon Burks is the next in the line of AJ Brown/Deebo Samuel-esque WRs and he is my WR1 in this class. I’d take him in the Top 10.

Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Kaiir Elam is my CB3 in this class, and yet Vegas has him +160 to be taken Round 1! First off, I like that bet a lot. I highly recommend taking that. Why? Because teams value CBs with Elam’s skillset. He’s over 6’1″, meets arm length thresholds, and ran a 4.39. He is only 20 years old, and at age 18 he posted an 87.8 PFF Grade. That is the 4th-best grade by a true freshman CB in PFF History. He also plays a style that translates very well to the NFL. He is a great press-man CB. You do not have to hide him in off-coverage or zone. He will take a WR1 and press him at the line all game long. He is intelligent, moves his hips well, keeps WRs on their toes by varying his press techniques, and has the long speed and ball skills to make plays on the ball all the way down the field. Every team could use an outside Corner in the mold of Kaiir Elam. Selfishly, I’d love it if my Bengals snagged him at 31, but I think he goes before then.

Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma

Perrion Winfrey is a top two 3-Tech in this class. I see Devonte Wyatt (we will get to him later) and Logan Hall mocked in Round 1 but Winfrey never gets the same love. Many would argue he was misused in OU’s defense, but still Perrion’s 13.7% Pass Rush Win Rate ranked 2nd among top DT prospects (Hall is #1 at 16.5%). He absolutely dominated 1 on 1 drills at the Senior Bowl and proved his prowess as a pass rusher winning the game’s Defensive MVP. His get-off speed at OU was lacking, though I’d argue he was doing his job, the DC for whatever reason refused to turn him loose. He tested very well. He needs to get more disciplined as a run defender, and I give Logan Hall a slight edge over him. But in a class lacking interior pass rushers, Winfrey deserves to be in the Round 1 discussion.

Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

Kyler Gordon, similar to Elam, is +175 via DraftKings Sportsbook to hear his name called on April 28th. While I think Elam is the safer bet, I still like that value on Gordon. Always a solid piece in the Huskies Secondary, Kyler came into his own this year as a playmaker lining up all over the field. He lined up outside, he spent time in the slot, he pressed, he played off-coverage, and he was always around the ball. Gordon is twitchy and you can tell by the way he breaks on the ball. He tested 90th percentile or better in the vertical jump, broad jump, short shuttle, and 3-cone and has 31 inch arms. He is agile and explosive and this shows up on tape in his ball skills and tackling ability. He is not quite as polished as the top 3 CBs in this draft, but the athleticism and traits displayed on film lead me to believe he can be a good starting CB in this league by at least year 2. Gordon could hear his name called as early as #25 to the Bills.

Cam Jurgens, C, Nebraska

The Center position as a whole has become less valued by the NFL recently. We see it with Tyler Linderbaum being a fringe first round projection despite being a top 10 talent in this class. That being said, the clear #2 Center in this class is Cam Jurgens, and he could be the perfect late round 2/early round 3 answer for a team that didn’t want to pay up for Linderbaum. Like his Big 10 brethren from Iowa, Jurgens tested like an elite wide zone Center. His 9.94 Relative Athletic Score paired with 33.375 inch arms is everything OL Coaches look for in a perfect Center prospect. While his tape cannot match Linderbaum (pretty much no Center prospect ever can match his tape), Jurgens’ athleticism and nastiness was very evident on film. Despite him starting this process as a Day 3 projection, I’d feel good taking Jurgens in Round 2 if I need a wide zone Center.

Honorable Mentions I Love

• Zach Tom, OL, Wake
• Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee
• Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
• David Bell, WR, Purdue
• Matt Henningsen, DT, Wisconsin

Prospects I “Hate“

Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

Devonte Wyatt is often seen mocked in the mid-first round, and I just do not see it. For starters, Wyatt is already 24 years old, meaning he is one of the oldest prospects in this class. In 4 years at Georgia, he played 42 games and recorded just 5.0 sacks. His best year was easily 2021 where he played 13 games and recorded 2.5 sacks and 7.0 TFLs. In your age 23 season, playing almost all opponents younger than you, and having the best NT in the country and potential #1 pick EDGE next to you, I need to see more production. Wyatt is not a bad player at all, but ultimately there are just too many red flags for me to take him in Round 1. Especially when 3-Techs like Logan Hall (6 sacks, 13.0 TFLs) and Perrion Winfrey (5.5 sacks, 11.0 TFLs) were more productive AND had better Pass Rush Win Rates as 21 year olds last season than Wyatt had as a 23 year old. Wyatt is a late round 2 talent for me.

Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

This one I know will be a controversial take. I’ll start by saying this: Chris Olave will be a solid NFL player. However, it seems like he will end up being a top 15 pick, and that is just a bit rich for my liking. The good news is, Olave is a smooth route runner with good long speed which gives him a solid floor in the NFL. Many teams can use a guy like that in their WR room. As I noted in my mock, the 6’1″, 187 lb Olave’s body type is not exactly my cup of tea for an Alpha WR1. Devante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, and AJ Brown are the types of bigger bodied guys I prefer. Which is why I prefer London, Burks, and even the shifty Wilson to Olave in this class. Olave also had just a 32 inch vertical (26% for WRs) at the Combine, which means he’s not gonna bully you downfield and he also won’t out-jump DBs in the air. Another area that makes for dominant WR1s in YAC ability. All the guys listed above can break arm tackles and turn a 15 yard gain into an 80 yard gain. Olave is one of the worst in this class in YAC/Reception. Per Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com, Olave forced just 1 missed tackle every 18.2 receptions. Drake London, in comparison, forced 1 missed tackle every 3.3 receptions. Those factors cap his ceiling for me, and I see him as a solid WR2 in the NFL rather than a WR1 that should go in the top half of round 1. At his best, I think he can use his speed and route running to be a Devonta Smith/Calvin Ridley type. I have an early round 2 grade on Olave and put him a tier below the top WRs in this class.

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

I get the tantalizing upside with Malik Willis, and why so many believe he should be a top 10 pick based on traits alone. I just do not feel comfortable taking a QB this raw with such a high pick. Many compare his arm and athleticism to Josh Allen coming into the league and figuring it all out. The difference is Josh Allen is 4 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. Allen also tested like an elite athlete at the combine, while Willis did not participate in any of the tests. We know Willis is fast, but we cannot assume he is the same level athlete in the rest of the drills as Allen was. Allen is also an outlier when it comes to QB prospects. Pretty much no QB ever has improved his accuracy as much as Josh Allen did his first few years in the league. I would not compare anyone to the Buffalo QB. To me, the far better Willis comparison is Jalen Hurts. Hurts was a little further along in his decision making, and was more accurate his final year of college, tallying an 8% better completion percentage on 4 more YPA than Willis. Willis does have a slightly better arm. They operate in similar ways as runners which raises their floor early in their careers. Willis’ highlight reel is incredible. You’ll see him running past multiple DL and making throws deep down the field. Far too often though, you will see Willis be late on reads over the middle of the field and sail intermediate passes over the heads of WRs on sideline routes. I have a second round grade on Willis, and would be far more comfortable taking him on day 2 like Jalen Hurts, but with no Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in this class, we will likely see Willis go higher than he should. Hopefully he goes to a team with a great offensive mind that can help him grow as a QB and put him in positions to be successful early in his career.

Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

Raimann has one of the most unique stories in this draft. An exchange student from Austria, Raimann wound up at Central Michigan as a TE before hitting the weight room and converting into an OT. The 6’7″, 305 pound Austrian isn’t the thickest Tackle in the world, but the former TE is very quick and moves well in pass sets. My worries stem from the fact that he is raw and still learning the position. This would be fine if he were a young 21 year old rookie, but Raimann will be 25 years old at the start of his rookie season. Despite his height, his arms are under 33 inches (23rd percentile for OTs). He struggled in 1 on 1’s at the Senior Bowl when matched up with DL that have advanced pass rush arsenals. Bernhard also lacks power in the run game and struggles with positioning and hand placement. While he is athletic and shows good footwork, I just see too many flaws in his profile to give him higher than a second round grade.

Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Well I can’t love every Corner, okay!?! You read about my love for Kaiir Elam and Kyler Gordon earlier in this article. Now here is one I am lower on than most. Trent McDuffie is an extremely intelligent CB. He also tested like a great athlete. He probably has the highest floor in this class outside of Gardner. So why am I so low? It’s his ceiling. For starters, his arm length is under 30 inches. I know, I know you’re calling me an excel sheet nerd and asking “why should I care about his arm length??” Well here is why: only 5 CBs with less than 30 inch arms have 400+ snaps as an outside CB since 2017. They are Donte Jackson, Troy Hill, Avonte Maddox, Cam Sutton, and Ross Cockrell. Not exactly world beaters. What about the truly elite CBs? Going back to 2010, no All-Pro CB has had below 31 inch arms. He didn’t face many NFL WRs at Washington (unfortunately we did not get to see him vs. Drake London in 2021), so we do not know how he will fare against bigger bodied WRs on the outside. McDuffie has a lot of strengths in his game, but the team selecting him has to accept the fact that he may be just a good slot Corner at the NFL level. The good news is every team uses slot Corners now. The bad news is they are not as sought after or paid as highly as the rare top boundary Corners. For this reason, I have McDuffie as a fringe late first/early second round grade and would rather take Elam or Gordon over him.

Honorable Mentions I “Hate”

• Kenny Pickett
• Tyler Smith
• Jalen Wydermyer
• John Metchie III
• James Cook