It sounds crazy, but the NFL Combine is already upon us. On-field drills and testing for Defensive Linemen and Linebackers begins this afternoon, and every position group will test within the next four days. So what better time to release my Mock Draft 1.0 of 2024? Stocks for different players will rise and fall over the next week and NFL Free Agency will begin in just 12 days, but it’s good to get an early pulse on where both teams and prospects stand and how that could change moving forward. These picks are based on how I see each team evaluating the players on the board based needs, scheme, and draft tendency history. It is far from a perfect process but a good exercise to see what could happen if the board falls a certain way. In last year’s Mock 1.0, we were able to successfully hit on: Will Anderson #3 overall, Anthony Richardson to the Colts, Christian Gonzalez to the Patriots, Lukas Van Ness to the Packers, Calijah Kancey to the Buccaneers, and Bryan Bresee to the Saints. Let’s see what we can do this year. As always, let me know what fits you like or dislike. Without further ado, the Chicago Bears are on the clock…

1. Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The Bears are expected to trade Justin Fields and take a QB with the top pick. Caleb Williams’ combination of elite arm talent and improvisation ability has made him the favorite to go #1. The Bears hired Seahawks OC Shane Waldron for the same position this offseason. Waldron’s job will be to help Williams improve his footwork, timing, and pocket presence while still enabling the out of structure magic that makes him so unique. Williams has the longest time to throw of any College QB Draft Prospect since 2014 per PFF tracking data. We have seen Mahomes master the art of getting the ball out quick the last two years, despite his gifts out of structure, can Caleb develop the same ability? The arm talent is elite, he just needs to learn when to go for the home run swing and when to take singles. If the Bears are able to help Caleb find the right balance, they could finally have their Franchise QB (or at least their first 4,000 yard passer).

2. Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Washington cleaned house this offseason and will add a new QB to go with a new ownership group, coaching staff, and front office. Drake Maye is the best height/weight/athleticism combination at QB in this Draft. He plays like a more chaotic version of Justin Herbert. Sometimes Maye trusts his arm too much and on other occasions, sloppy footwork will lead to a misfire. However, the throws he is able to make downfield, in tight windows, and on the run combined with an ability to play within structure is rare at the position. The Kliff Kingsbury OC hire concerns me after seeing the dumpster fire offense USC was running last season, but Drake may(e) be talented enough to overcome it.

3. Patriots – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

The Patriots are a bit of a wildcard. QB is a definite need, but so is everything else on offense. Daniels is tall and thin with game-breaking speed and a great deep ball. He does a poor job of avoiding contact as a runner and takes some huge hits, which is dicey for a slighter build QB. When he breaks the pocket, he is at his best as a runner. He has not shown to be as good of an off-script creator as a passer the same way Williams and Maye have, but that may have been because his legs were so effective in college. His pocket management is a concern. Daniels has the highest Pressure to Sack rate (a higher percentage of pressures on Daniels turn into sacks) in this class. The only QB prospects with an equal or higher rate since 2014 are Fields, Ridder, Levis, Howell, McKee, and Hooker. Not great company. He doesn’t have the velocity in his arm to consistently fit throws into tight windows. What makes Daniels intriguing this high in the Draft is explosive plays. His 90 plays of 20+ yards were by far the most in the country. For context Joe Burrow, in the 2019 LSU offense that is considered one of the most explosive ever, had 87 such plays. Daniels will need to grow as a passer, particularly in the intermediate level of the field and between the numbers, but he changes the math with his ability to get chunk gains as a runner and thrower. I’m not sure I can buy into taking Daniels this high personally, but New England swings for the fences with this one.

4. Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

I can’t imagine there will be too many arguments with this pick for Arizona. Marvin Harrison Jr. is as close to a sure thing as it gets at the WR position. He’s 6’4” with great footwork and vertical speed. His body control and ball skills are some of the best you’ll ever see from a college WR. His body type and skillset are eerily similar to former Bengals All-Pro WR AJ Green. He is not an elite YAC threat when he needs to make a man miss in space and is a tad skinny, but he does everything else at a near elite level. He will be a bonafide WR1 for a decade. Arizona should be ecstatic if he falls into their lap at pick 4.

*TRADE* Vikings trade picks 11, 42, and a future 4th in exchange for pick 5

5. Vikings – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

BOOM! The first stunner of the Draft. The Vikings trade up and take the 4^th QB off the board in the first 5 picks! I admittedly, do not understand this level of hype with McCarthy, but sources in league circles have remained confident that McCarthy will be a top half of the 1^st Round pick. With the Giants, Falcons, Broncos, and Raiders all in the conversation to take a QB, Minnesota trades up to secure their guy. McCarthy is an above average athlete that throws with good velocity and above average accuracy. Coaches will like his toughness, leadership, and 27-1 record in college football.  Like Daniels, JJ has a very lean frame. Most of his throws came in advantageous situations, as Michigan did not ask him to throw often on third downs or in big games as they were often playing with the lead. The Chargers, who own the 5^th pick, are now led by Jim Harbaugh who coached McCarthy the last 3 years. He unsurprisingly believes JJ will be a great NFL QB. I can’t see him trading this pick inside the division to Denver or Vegas and having to face McCarthy twice a year. Kirk Cousins’ contract is up this offseason and it’s a perfect time for Minnesota to turn the page. Kevin O’Connell would be an excellent coach for a young QB to develop with. Oh, and throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson doesn’t hurt either. 

6. Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I’d expect the Giants to do their homework on the QBs in this class, maybe even give New England a call to check the price of moving to #3, but in this Mock the top 4 are all off the board. Therefore the Giants opt to take the best player available who happens to play a position of need. The Giants haven’t had a true #1 WR since Odell was traded away. They really have a bunch of #3 options on the roster as of now. Malik Nabers changes that. He can play outside or inside and win consistently. He is a terrifying deep threat and is the best in the class with the ball in his hands after the catch. He is one of the 5 best WR prospects of the last decade. If the Giants can’t upgrade at QB, then the next best thing is adding a WR with All-Pro potential.

7. Titans – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

I am yet to see a Mock that does not have the Titans selecting a franchise OT, and I totally get it. Joe Alt is my top player on the board and the Titans have a bad OL. It would be a home run pick. But are we suuuuure it’s going to be a Tackle? The Titans hired Brian Callahan, who spent the last 5 years as OC in Cincinnati, as HC this offseason. Hmmmm… let’s think for a second. Has Brian Callahan ever been a part of a team with a second year QB, a bad OL, an average WR room, and a top 10 pick? Why yes, he has. The 2021 Bengals. Was there a blue chip WR and OT on the board for them? Yes indeed. What did they do? Took a WR, saw the offense go from bottom of the league to the most explosive passes in the NFL, and end up in the Super Bowl. I am not saying the Titans are going to make that kind of leap, but Callahan clearly values having an Alpha WR1 and has experience running a successful offense despite a horrendous OL. Rome Odunze is the final WR left in the top tier of this class. The 6’3”, 215 lb. Odunze was Nevada state champion in the 200 meters in high school. His size/speed score could very well lead the class. He also caught a whopping 67% of his contested targets this season. He runs routes incredibly well for a WR as big as him. Odunze is what Tennessee has been missing since the AJ Brown trade. Brian Callahan also hired his dad Bill as the OL Coach. Bill has a history of developing mid-late round OL talent and reviving the careers of others (Wyatt Teller). Perhaps the father-son duo believe Bill can get more with less up front and opt to get the WR1 early while adding some OL talent on day 2. I totally understand if they go this route. Either way, Will “Billie Jeans” Levis should be ecstatic about receiving some help in year 2.

8. Falcons – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

The Falcons main objective will be figuring out their QB situation this offseason. If they do not plan to move up in the Draft, then I think they will explore the veteran QB market. Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins are definite possibilities. Their next biggest weakness is their pass rush. They were near the bottom of the league in most pass rush stats, and a lot of their main guys on the DL are on their last legs (Bud Dupree, Calais Campbell, Grady Jarrett). Dallas Turner would add some much-needed juice to their defense. Turner, who just turned 21 in early February, is not as polished as Latu and Verse but is over two years younger and more athletic than both. The reigning SEC DPOY has had a very productive career. He racked up 14.5 TFLs and 10 sacks last season. In 2021, as an 18-year-old true freshman in the SEC, he tallied 10 TFLs and 8.5 sacks. Turner should continue to add to his frame and increase his play strength, but his finesse rushes, ability to bend the corner, and closing speed would make him a useful asset early on in Atlanta.

9. Bears – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

In a perfect world, one of Nabers or Odunze makes it pick 9, and the Bears can give their new QB another elite WR to pair with DJ Moore. The Bears should certainly consider Joe Alt with this pick, but reports are that they are happy with Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright at the OT spots. In which case, EDGE is the clear biggest need. As a team, the Bears had the lowest PFF Pass Rush grade in the league last season, and their 30 sacks were 2^nd fewest in the NFL. The midseason trade for Montez Sweat greatly helped their pass rush in the second half of the season, but no one other than Sweat recorded even 5 sacks last year. Adding a second high level EDGE to the mix could make this Bears’ defense great. Jared Verse has the skillset to make an instant impact in Chicago. He has a quick first step and has the speed and flexibility to bend around the arc. He also shows elite speed-to-power ability when bull rushing and had multiple reps where he bulled an OT back into the QB’s lap. He can still improve on finding a more consistent counter move inside, and he needs to show more discipline in the run game. Sometimes, he needs to just set the edge instead of trying to make a splash play. That being said, Verse has all the tools to be a future Pro Bowl EDGE at the next level. Verse can help take a young Bears defense, that played extremely well late last season, to the next level.

10. Jets – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Simply put, this would be the steal of the Draft for the Jets. Joe Alt is a top 5 player in this class, and the top OT. The 6’8”, 325 lb. Alt still had to use his fake ID to get a beer at the Linebacker Lounge in South Bend until his 21st birthday yesterday. The high school TE moves incredibly well for a man of his size and has no issue mirroring smaller, quicker EDGEs in pass protection and getting off his spot and moving in the zone running game. Alt, the son of a Pro Bowl LT, has no glaring weaknesses in his game, and pick 10 feels like the absolute floor for where he could go. Defenders can sometimes get into his chest and bullrush him back a bit to muddy the pocket. His hands aren’t quite as powerful on contact as Latham, Fuaga, or Mims, but he can reach blocks others can’t and always finishes. His nasty on-field demeanor comes as no surprise as his older brother, Mark, is a former NHL defenseman. Considering Alt is only in his 3^rd year at Tackle and will be 21 years old for his entire rookie season, there is reason to believe he is just scratching the surface as a player. His frame can probably add another 10-15 pounds for added strength without sacrificing athleticism. The Jets OL was a mess last season. Alt is a plug-and-play starting LT, and will be a high level blindside protector for the next decade plus. The Jets’ front office should run to the podium if he is available. 

11. Chargers – JC Latham, OT, Alabama

If the Chargers want to stay at #5 and take Malik Nabers, I will have zero issue with it. If not, then trading back, acquiring more picks, and taking an OT makes a lot of sense. The Chargers have an aging roster and are over the cap. They need to have a mini reset and move on from a few guys who have been core players for them recently. The best way to get younger and cheaper is more draft picks. With Franchise LT Rashawn Slater already on the roster, staying at 5 to take Alt and moving him to RT may not be the optimal route. Along with the extra picks, the Chargers can take one of the true RTs in this range. Jim Harbaugh’s crew opts for Alabama giant JC Latham. Listed at 6’6”, 360 lbs., Latham is the biggest OT in this class, and one of the 10 biggest of this century. Harbaugh has built successful teams in both college and the pros off of power run games, and Latham will help him build that. Latham is the strongest player in this class. He throws cinderblocks for hands in the run game, and when he gets his hands on a defender in pass pro, the rep is over. He isn’t the fleetest of foot. Latham is not as nimble getting to the second level in the run game as some of the others in this class. Teams that run Shanahan offenses which feature a lot of outside zone runs probably won’t take him this high. But downhill, power run teams like the Harbaugh/Greg Roman Chargers should love him. His powerful down blocks consistently open up running lanes. He has an extremely high football IQ and does a good job recognizing blitzes and passing off stunts. He has a surprisingly good kick step to stop rushers going around the arc and an incredibly strong anchor against power rushes. He can occasionally get beaten inside by counter moves and sometimes drops his head in the run game leading to losses, but overall, it’s hard to see how Latham doesn’t become a good starting RT in the league for years to come. Latham was also a top 5 recruit in the country coming out of High School. Jim Harbaugh recruited him heavily at Michigan. The Wolverines first offered Latham when he was a 6’6” 280 lb. 15-year-old Defensive End from Wisconsin. Latham even wore Michigan gloves in high school games that year. JC would later transfer to IMG Academy in Florida and become an OT. Harbaugh lost out on the recruiting battle to Nick Saban, but he gets his second chance in the NFL. The Chargers will have Slater and Latham as their bookend Tackles for a long time.

12. Broncos – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

What the Broncos do at QB will be the main storyline for them this offseason. But they also need a lot of help along the DL. Denver had a bottom 10 run defense and pass rush in 2023. Byron Murphy II can help with both of those. Every team is looking for more pass rushers. And the 6’1”, 308 lb. Murphy is just 21 years old and led all college DTs in PFF Pass Rush Grade (91.5) and Pass Rush Win Rate (19.6%) in 2023. He is also a solid run defender and is expected to test really well at the NFL Combine. Texas split his time between Nose Tackle and 3-Tech, but in the NFL he is best suited as a pass rushing 3T. Sometimes, particularly when playing Nose, he got washed out of run plays when doubled. He gets significant pressure but can’t always finish the play. If he can become a more reliable tackler, he should see even more sacks and TFLs to his name. However, his size, athleticism, and disruption ability at just 21 years of age is incredibly rare. It’s hard to see a talent like that slip out of the Top 20. 

13. Raiders – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Add the Raiders to the list of QBs in this range that need a QB. Jimmy G is expected to be cut as a cap casualty, and second year QB Aidan O’Connell will be 26 years old week 1 and has not shown signs of being good. Keep the Raiders in mind as a sneaky candidate to give up a haul to move into the Top 5 and take Jayden Daniels, who was the QB at Arizona State the same time new Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was on staff there. Pierce is reportedly a big fan of Daniels, but it would likely take this pick plus 2 additional firsts to move up to #3. Plan B is to take the best player available and add him to a roster that needs help everywhere. For me, that’s Terrion Arnold, my CB1 in this class. Arnold is a great athlete, has effortless footwork to mirror WRs in man coverage, and very good ball skills. He shows good strength to fight through contact at the catch point and break up would be receptions. He showed inside-outside versatility, playing both at times this year, but his home is probably on the outside. Arnold won’t turn 21 until next month. His playstyle is similar to Bears lockdown CB Jaylon Johnson, but I expect him to run a bit faster than Johnson at the Combine. The Raiders could just as easily attack the OL or DL here, but Arnold at a position of need might be too good to pass. 

14. Saints – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Coming off an extremely disappointing year where the Saints had the easiest schedule in football, restructured contracts to go all in (again), and couldn’t win the worst division in football, the Saints have decided to do that again! While finding a QB of the future would be great. They just locked themselves into two more years of Derek Carr by restructuring his contract, so that option is gone here. I guess the best route to go is just selecting a top player at a premium position. Penn State LT Olu Fashanu fits the bill. The Saints whiffed on OT Trevor Penning in the first round in 2022 (turns out you actually need to be a skilled blocker and not just try to fight people every play. Shocking!). Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk, who made 3 All-Pro teams a few years back, has a bad knee injury and does not know how much longer he will be able to play. Fashanu can lock down the LT spot for years to come. The Saints have always valued athleticism when drafting OTs, and Fashanu checks that box. Olu has great footwork and can mirror EDGE rushers in pass protection and anchors well. He has the movement ability to play in an outside zone run game, but is still very raw in his run blocking abilities. In the run game, he will overrun the defender or whiff trying to reach his assignment too often. He has trouble sustaining blocks and finishing in the run game. Fashanu can hold the line of scrimmage but he won’t change it. That being said, Olu’s length and movement ability as a pass protector at just 21 years old is hard to find in the NFL. If a coaching staff can help him develop to become even an above average run blocker, he can be a Pro Bowl LT. 

15. Colts – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The Colts need help on defense and GM Chris Ballard drafts athletes more than anyone, so I almost gave them Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell. However the value of Brock Bowers at 15 was too good to pass up. The Colts need more playmakers for 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson. Michael Pittman Jr. will likely be franchised tagged and Josh Downs showed to be an exciting young WR, but it’s hard to say what the future of their passing game looks like. Where Brock Bowers goes will be one of the most interesting draft day story lines. Bowers led Georgia in receiving yards all 3 years he was there… at ages 18, 19, and 20 years old. However, he is undersized by typical TE standards. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him measure in at 6’3”, 230 lbs. To look at him as a normal TE would mean not getting the most out of Bowers. He is an offensive weapon that should be the focal point of your passing offense. Last year at Georgia, Bowers played 251 snaps inline, 197 snaps in the slot, 48 snaps out wide, and 21 snaps in the backfield. Many times, Georgia would bring Bowers in motion pre snap and design a screen, dump off, or end around to get the ball in his hands. With his speed and tackle breaking ability, this led to a lot of chunk gains. Past the line of scrimmage, he is a nuanced route runner and is good at finding open spaces in zone coverage. He has good hands and a big catch radius, with speed to threaten teams down the seam. He can hold his own as a run blocker, but is better used as a move blocker in space or chipping EDGEs. He is in the mold of Sam LaPorta, but a more technically sound blocker and even more explosive with the ball in his hands. Colts HC Shane Steichen has proven to be one of the best offensive minds in football over the last two years, getting the Eagles to the Super Bowl and having a Gardner Minshew-led offense on the brink of the playoffs. Now with Richardson back healthy, Bowers can add an entirely new element to this young offense. 

16. Seahawks – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

This pick feels like it will be in the trenches on either offense or defense. On defense, Seattle could use one more pass rusher. They have some solid guys on the DL, but lack an elite player there. They traded a 2nd round pick for a rental of DT Leonard Williams, and it remains to be seen if they are able to keep him. The good news is: new Seahawks HC Mike MacDonald is capable of scheming up pressure without blue chip talent across the DL. On the offensive side, they have an abundance of talent at the skill positions, but struggled up front last year. Charles Cross has put up a solid first two solid seasons at LT, and they are hoping he can make a leap here soon. On the right side, Abe Lucas missed 11 games to injury, and struggled more in year 2 than he did as a rookie. The 3 Interior OL are free agents. Simply put, they need more talent on this OL. Which makes Taliese Fuaga a great selection at 16. Fuaga is a big, nasty RT that moves well in space and gets to the second level extremely well. For a Seahawks OL room that is looking for an identity, Fuaga can be exactly that. He will be a plus run blocker from Day 1, and has shown a good ability in pass pro as well, he just needs more reps in true pass sets to really get comfortable. Personally, I would keep Fuaga at RT and kick Lucas to a Guard spot, but Fuaga possesses a skillset that would make for a fantastic Guard as well if they want to start him off there. I almost put Washington OT/OG prospect Troy Fautanu here to reunite him with former Washington/current Seattle OC Ryan Grubb, but I think Fuaga is just a better prospect overall. Great pick for the Seahawks.

17. Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

A case can certainly be made for the Jaguars to add a defensive playmaker here, but their offense was too poor last year for a team that has a good QB. I think they need to continue to add talent around Trevor Lawrence and help him develop. Their Center and Guard spots could definitely use an upgrade here, but I think they could use some more firepower in this offense more than anything. Calvin Ridley will be 30 this year, and is a free agent. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are nice players, but Brian Thomas Jr. would bring them a big, fast WR that can win down the field. A State Champion High School basketball player that had Power 5 offers in both sports, Thomas is quick off the line and can effortlessly stack CBs and win downfield at the catch point. There was no better WR in college football last season on go balls. Thomas led the country in receiving TDs. He was not used much over the middle of the field, and can stand to improve his catch in traffic ability, but is a sharp route runner when asked and is more dangerous in YAC situations than almost any 6’4” WRs I have seen. He would add juice to a Jacksonville offense that too often felt stale last year. 

18. Bengals – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The reason many of you are still reading: what do I have the Bengals doing? The defense struggled last year, so adding a DT like Johnny Newton or a CB like Quinyon Mitchell is a possibility. A pass catcher to be a third option this year and eventually replace Tee Higgins as the secondary option will also be considered. Although with Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr. off the board, I am less interested in that route. No matter how the board at other positions shakes out, drafting one of the top OTs in this class remains my top choice, and what I think is most likely the Bengals’ top choice as well. With Jonah Williams likely departing, the Bengals will be starting their 5th different RT in as many seasons. I expect them to sign a veteran to a modest deal in free agency in case a RT they like does not fall to them and/or as insurance if the rookie is not ready to start Week 1. I do not see them signing anyone good enough to prevent them from taking a OT here. OTs are hard to find in the Draft. Many years, you have to be in the Top 10 if you want to grab a guy that can start relatively early on in his career. The Bengals are fortunate that this deepest group of first round Tackles in a quite awhile. If Burrow can stay healthy, they hope this is as high as they will be picking for the next several years. Last year, including Jonah’s salary, Cincinnati’s OL room was expensive and mediocre. That is a bad place to be. The only way to truly get both less expensive and increase the upside of the talent in the room is through the Draft. Re-signing Jonah Williams and locking yourself until an expensive OL with little to no upside for the next 3 years is not getting you anywhere. It all lines up perfectly to take an OT that can start for a decade. Amarius Mims has a “first guy off the bus” look to him. He looks like he was made in a lab to play Offensive Tackle. He will be a polarizing prospect for teams, not because of his play on the field, but because how often he was on the field. The 6’7″, 340 lb. Mims was a unanimous 5 star recruit in the 2021 class. He has a 7’1″ wingspan and carries his weight extremely well. In 2022 as a true sophomore, Mims was Georgia’s OT3 behind junior 1st Round pick LT Broderick Jones and senior 1st Team-SEC RT Warren McClendon, usually coming in during mop up time to get some work. McClendon went down in the SEC Championship Game, meaning Mims would make his first career start at RT in the CFP vs. Ohio State. Going up against 3 future NFL EDGEs, Mims did not allow a single pressure and opened big holes in the run game. After another great showing in the Title game, he entered this year as the starting RT. He was once again dominant before a high ankle sprain forced him to miss time. He came back later in the season and picked up where he left off, but it’s disappointing he wasn’t able to have a larger body of work. Mims has only started 8 games in his college career, and still I would be ecstatic for the Bengals to take him here. He is that good. This misconception is that Mims is incredibly raw and some project you hope hits. He really isn’t, especially in pass pro. In 364 career pass blocking snaps, Mims has allowed 5 hurries, 0 QB hits, and 0 sacks. Per Brett Kollmann of the Bootleg Football Podcast, his pressure percentage allowed on non-RPO and non play-action pass pro snaps is just 0.9%. The next lowest in the class is Alt at 1.8%. No one else is under 2%. His movement ability at that size, particularly laterally, is simply incredible and he has Herculean strength to go with elite length. For someone with so few snaps, he has a high football IQ. He has good vision to help pick up blitzes and stunts. The few losses he had came on counter moves inside, which he will have to improve on, but he seemingly never loses through his chest or around the arc. In the run game, he explodes out of his stance and can move opposing D-Lineman over an entire gap, then move onto the next target. He will need to polish his technique in the run game a bit in terms of hand placement and keeping his feet moving while engaged. Georgia’s run game never asked him to block outside zone, so that is also an unknown, although with his athleticism, you imagine he could do it eventually. Mims has areas to clean up, but he is already this good. He is expected to impress big time at the Combine as well. I am not scared of taking him at 18. Playing so few snaps is the only reason a team picking outside the Top 10 has a chance at him. Mims has the highest upside of any OT in this class outside of maybe Joe Alt, and the floor is pretty high already. Cincinnati should be excited if he is the pick at 18.

19. Rams – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo 

The Rams have not picked in the first round since they traded up and selected Jared Goff #1 overall in 2016. As we saw last year though, GM Les Sneed has done a great job of drafting in the middle rounds in recent years. Last year alone: WR Puka Nucua, IOL Steve Avila, DT Kobie Turner, and EDGE Byron Young were all among the most productive rookies at their positions. The defense, outside of Donald, is extremely young and could really use some talent on the back end. Quinyon Mitchell is an uber athletic outside CB with excellent ball skills. He tallied 6 picks over the last two years and was among the nation’s leaders in pass breakups. Scouts wondered how he would fare making a leap in competition at the Senior Bowl, and he had arguably the best week of practice of any player. Consistently playing tight coverage on a handful of Day 2 WR prospects and reeling in multiple impressive interceptions. Mitchell is expected to run in the 4.3s at the Combine and test well across the board. If things go as expected, he has a shot to be CB1 off the board. The Rams add another building block to an exciting young defense.

20. Steelers – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Doesn’t Jackson Powers-Johnson just feel like a Steeler? When you think of great Center play, you think of Pittsburgh. In the 70s and 80s they had HOFer Mike Webster. In the 90s they had HOFer Dermontti Dawson. In the 2010s they had 9 time Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey. Well in 2023 they had Mason Cole. And he sucked. Cole has already been cut this offseason, so the Steelers are ready to select the next great one. Jackson Powers-Johnson combines elite size with good movement ability, nastiness, and technique. Pittsburgh added OT Broderick Jones to the mix last year and saw some improvement on their OL over the course of the year. Powers-Johnson has the potential to be a Pro Bowl Center for them for the long haul. Tomlin, who was running the show when Pittsburgh picked Pouncey in the Top 20, was very hands-on in drills at the Senior Bowl (where Powers-Johnson stonewalled every defender they put in front of him). You have to imagine this pick would have his seal of approval.

21. Dolphins – Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

Miami has a lot of high level talent on this roster, but a lot of their stars are on big contracts. All 3 of their starting Interior Offensive Linemen are free agents this offseason and LT Terron Armstead is aging and cannot stay healthy. The position undoubtedly needs to be addressed. Troy Fautanu, who played LT at Washington last year, is one of the most versatile OL in this class and could likely develop into at least a solid starter at any of the 5 positions. Some evaluators think Fautanu is best suited as a Guard in the NFL, but I think he has the length and ability to play OT if needed. He’s a very good athlete that is extremely comfortable on the move in the run game. He lays guys out when he has the opportunity. His athleticism would be a great fit in Mike McDaniel’s wide zone run scheme. He mirrors well in pass pro but has to clean up some issues with hand usage and oversetting if he wants to stay at Tackle. In Miami, he could start from Day 1 at Guard, and be used at LT in a pinch if Armstead goes down. After a couple years in the league, the Dolphins can decide where he is best suited long term. 

22. Eagles – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The Eagles fell apart in the second half of last year, and the back 7 of the defense deserves a large part of the blame. GM Howie Roseman has typically added to the trenches on both sides of the ball early in Drafts, but it’s time to invest some help on the back end. DeJean is a big, versatile DB that played Outside CB, slot CB, and Safety in 2022 before finally settling in full time on the outside in 2023. He is a very good athlete that should test well in the 40, vertical, and broad jump at his Pro Day. He is at his best in zone coverage but can hold his own in man. He is faster vertically than he is laterally, which is why zone is where he thrives. He is a strong tackler in the run game, which no one in Philly seems to be. He has a knack for picking off passes, tallying 7 in the past two seasons. He has also proven to be a dangerous return man. His skillset leads me to believe he could be best used as a Slot Corner at the next level. We’ve seen more and more DCs using their best playmaker in the slot. Kyle Hamilton in Baltimore, Trent McDuffie in KC, and Devon Witherspoon in Seattle are just a few of the top examples. All 3 were selected Round 1 and are game changers for their defenses. Gone are the days of playing your best playmakers exclusively on the outside. Wherever DeJean ends up playing, he will be an upgrade for Philadelphia.

23. Texans – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Houston was the most exciting young team in football last year. Much of which can be attributed to adding a building block to both sides of the ball in Round 1 in C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. Heading into his second year as HC, Demeco Ryans knows exactly how his great defenses in San Francisco were built. Through the Defensive Line. Will Anderson already looks like a star, but adding a 2nd great young pass rusher to the mix could make them scary. Laiatu Latu is without a doubt the most polished EDGE in this year’s class. Latu has a full bag of tricks as a pass rusher. Swipes, spins, rips, chops, inside, outside, speed-to-power. He keeps OTs on their toes throughout the game. In 12 games this season, Latu tallied 62 pressures and 13 sacks on a ludicrous 26.2% pass rush win rate (1st in the class). The NFL Combine will be more important for Latu than just about anyone else in attendance. While he was a player at Washington, he suffered a neck injury that caused the school to medically retire him. Latu found his way to UCLA, where doctors eventually cleared him, but it remains to be seen if NFL doctors will flag him as a medical risk. Also while a good athlete, Latu likely will not test quite as well as Turner, Verse, and Chop Robinson. If healthy, it’s hard to imagine Latu won’t be a good pass rusher at the next level. 

24. Cowboys – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Cowboys always invest in their OL, and they stick to their philosophy taking Guyton here at 24. The 6’7”, 328 lb. Guyton is an impressive specimen. The word on the street is that the former EDGE turned Tight End turned Right Tackle is going to test like a monster at the Combine. Don’t be surprised if he tests like the most athletic OL there. His frame is big enough to add another 10-15 pounds at the next level as well. When you watch Guyton move, it’s easy to see why some team in Round 1 will be willing to bet on the traits developing into a good player. Like Amarius Mims, Guyton has played less than 1100 snaps in his college career. The difference is Mims has been playing OT since the start of high school and throughout college while Guyton is still new to the position. This shows on film as Guyton is a lot more raw and is more of a projection than Mims. Guyton’s footwork is messy at times in pass pro which can lead to losses despite his advantage in athleticism over the EDGE he is facing. In the run game, he has too many whiffs or reps where he ends up on the ground due to poor leverage and sustaining. Oklahoma’s RPO heavy offense got the ball out extremely quick, so he was rarely punished for his losses in pass pro. Personally, the first round is too rich for me on Guyton considering the tape and overall body of work. However, it is easy to see why a team like Dallas who hit on traitsy OL Tyler Smith a few years back, is willing to bet on the athletic upside. 

25. Packers – Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota

While many point to the OL with this pick since LT David Bakhtiari has been unable to stay healthy, Green Bay has done a better job than anyone of finding OL talent outside of the first round. They have consistently drafted defense in Round 1, and I think they do it again here. Their Safety room was poor last season, and their top 3 at the position: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, and Jonathan Owens are all free agents. Tyler Nubin is the type of Safety I would take in Round 1. His production at the Safety position is pretty rare. Nubin had 5 interceptions in 2023 while allowing just 6 catches on 20 targets as the primary coverage defender. He holds the Minnesota school record for picks with 13. He has good size for the position and gets downhill and wraps up tacklers consistently in the run game. He is a good athlete, but not the elite, twitchy kind that will tear up the Combine. In recent years, we have seen Brian Branch and Kyle Hamilton fall further than they should due to average testing at the Combine, and then immediately become stars on their defense in the NFL. Hopefully teams do not make this mistake again. Like Branch and Hamilton, Nubin’s IQ, instincts, and anticipation ability allow him to make plays on the ball and the ball carrier consistently. Draft good football players. Green Bay follows that motto here with the selection of Tyler Nubin. 

26. Buccaneers – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson  

The Bucs are in a bit of a weird no man’s land at the moment. They were better than expected this season. They won the poor NFC South and beat the Eagles in the playoffs, so they are picking 26th instead of Top 15. A lot of key pieces are free agents this offseason including QB Baker Mayfield, WR Mike Evans, LB Lavonte David, and S Antoine Winfield Jr. Which of these guys will they bring back? What does a Baker Mayfield deal look like? Do they look to draft a Bo Nix or Michael Penix here instead? A lot of questions to answer. They could use an injection of youth at a lot of different positions, so they should pretty much just look to add the best player they can. Nate Wiggins is a lanky, fast Corner who excels in press man coverage. The 6’2”, 185 lb. Clemson product can probably add 5-10 pounds to his frame. He has oily hips that help him stay with quicker WRs. Wiggins can be over aggressive trying to jump routes at times, but he has elite long speed to recover when he does get beat. Like Quinyon Mitchell, I expect him to run in the low 4.3s at the Combine. He is not a great run defender, lacking the physicality to get off blocks and bring down bigger ball carriers. He has the skillset and feistiness to be a good cover Corner in the league for a long time.

27. Cardinals – Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois

The Cardinals’ defense was arguably the worst in the league last year. They ranked 31st in PPG allowed. They were dead last in PFF run defense grade and bottom 5 in pass rush and pass coverage grades. Frankly they just do not have very much talent on this defense, and while they can’t fix it all with one Draft pick, this one should help. Johnny Newton is a player I am higher on than NFL circles seem to be. He is the clear top DT in this class for me. Newton is just 21 years old and already has two uber productive college seasons under his belt. He a tad undersized but makes up with it with explosiveness. He uses his leverage well and shows great agility to beat Guards with his agility. He has violent hands and does a good job getting off blocks with his upper body strength. Newton shows an ability to bend the corner and finish when he gets to the QB. He lacks a great bull rush likely due to a lack of length. Newton is disruptive in the running game and is certainly viable enough to be a 3-down player at the next level. The interior pass rush he provides is why he is coveted and has Pro Bowl potential at the next level. For an Arizona defense that needs help everywhere, Newton can be a building block moving forward.

28. Bills – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

The Bills are in contention as long as Josh Allen is playing, but they need to draft better than they have in recent years if they want to get over the hump. The roster is starting to get more expensive and older. It’s very possible this pick could be defense. Both Safeties are over 30 and possibly on the way out. CB has been a revolving door and Tre White could be a cap casualty. At EDGE, the Von Miller signing has been a disaster. Miller will be 35 at the start of the season and was a healthy scratch for games late last year. Ultimately though, I went with a WR. Gabe Davis is a free agent and will not be back. Stefon Diggs disappeared in the second half of last year, and who knows what his future holds. I like Kincaid, Knox, and Shakir, but they are more secondary or tertiary options to me. Whether Diggs is back or not, adding another potential WR1 to the mix can make Josh Allen that much more unstoppable. Adonai Mitchell is a long striding 6’4” outside WR. He shows great ability to win deep down the field (he had a field day vs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alabama) and has good body control and big catch radius. He is surprisingly smooth running routes for a man of his height. He is just 190 pounds and would serve himself well to add a little weight to his frame and become even more dominant in contested catch situations. The former Georgia transfer was seemingly underused at times throughout his career, but in 5 College Football Playoff games at UGA and Texas, he caught a TD in all of them. His YPRR (Yards Per Route Run) and other analytical metrics are lower than you’d like for a first round WR, but the 21 year old has the ability to develop into at least a good WR2 with time.

29. Lions – Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia

If there is one thing I know for certain about this class, it is that Dan Campbell will LOVE Zach Frazier. Frazier was a 4-time state champion heavyweight wrestler in high school. He tallied a 159-2 record, never suffering defeat after his freshman year, and only surrendered a takedown once in his career. As The Athletic’s Draft Expert Dane Brugler put it: “He won the genetic lottery for a center: Those on his father’s side were football players; those on his mother’s side were wrestlers.” His wrestling skills carry over to the gridiron where he wins with elite leverage and padlock grip strength. Watch one of his games and you will see him get under defenders, lift, and pancake them onto the turf play after play. He is incredibly smart and one of the toughest players in this class. In the 4th quarter of a game vs. Baylor on November 25, Frazier unfortunately broke his leg on the final drive. Instead of laying on the field in agony, Frazier immediately started bear crawling off the field on his two arms and one working leg and was able to hobble off the field on his own power and avoid a critical 10 second runoff for WVU who had no timeouts remaining. The Mountaineers ended up scoring the game winning TD with 23 seconds left to win 34-31. Frazier is somehow already running full speed on a treadmill and doing OL drills despite being just 3 months removed from the injury. Both of the Lions Guards are free agents, and their Pro Bowl Center Frank Ragnow has a recurring foot injury and is unsure how much longer he will be playing. The Lions have built their identity on the strength of their OL, and Frazier can step in at Guard immediately and eventually replace Ragnow at Center whenever he retires. If Dan Campbell wants another “kneecap biter”, then the decision with pick 29 is simple.

30. Ravens – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri 

The Ravens have always had one rule when drafting: take the best player available. Many teams say this, but the Ravens actually follow it. Positional value and team needs pretty much never play a factor. This strategy has helped them acquire blue chip talent such as Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum in recent years. Their most glaring needs are along the OL and at EDGE. Guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler and EDGEs Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy are all free agents. However, outside CB remains a need as well. Injuries are beginning to catch up with former All-Pro Marlon Humphrey, who did not look like himself last season. Brandon Stephens held his own on the other side, but former DC Mike MacDonald probably deserves a lot of praise for making the outside CBs look better than they are. Baltimore decides to scoop up a consensus first round talent in Ennis Rakestraw Jr. here. Rakestraw is a lengthy, twitchy Corner who is at his best in man coverage. He mirrored SEC WRs as well as just about anyone and uses his long arms to break up passes. He is not the biggest CB and can sometimes be outmuscled at the catch point by bigger WRs. He did not tally a high interception total in college. Despite his lack of mass, Rakestraw is a strong run defender and is also well versed at sniffing out screens, weaving past blockers, and making a play on the ball carrier. He would fit well in Baltimore.

31. 49ers – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

The 49ers were so close to finally winning Kyle Shannahan his first Super Bowl, and the trenches will likely be the focus with their first pick of the Draft. An OL prospect such as Graham Barton or Kingsley Suamataia would make sense here considering the weak spots in that room outside of LT Trent Williams. However, the 49ers have not invested much into the OL early in Drafts or in Free Agency. They are always looking to add talent to their DL. Bosa, Armstead, and Hargrave will all return next season. The team traded a 3rd round pick for a half season rental of Chase Young at the trade deadline who was up and down during his brief time in San Fran. He will likely head elsewhere this offseason, and the 49ers should look to replace him with a rookie since the other 3 DL starters are so expensive. Chop Robinson feels like a perfect fit for what the 49ers covet in an EDGE. Chop has arguably the quickest snap get-off I have ever seen from a prospect. He explodes out of his stance consistently and has bend and flexibility to get around the corner. He has a few go-to finesse moves to beat OTs. In “wide 9” alignments that San Fran has been known to use plenty of, he could be lethal as most OTs will struggle to kick outside quick enough to match him. Robinson has a lean frame and is a bit of a one trick pony at the moment. He is not a great run defender and does not yet have the power to consistently bull rush bigger OTs. While his sack totals have been modest, Robinson has a high pass rush win rate %. At worst, you can envision Chop becoming a dangerous pass rush specialist on 3rd downs similar to Josh Uche and Bryce Huff. If he adds weight to his frame and develops, he may be able to develop into a quality every down player. His pass rush and athleticism alone make the back end of the first round feel like the absolute floor for the 21 year old Robinson. Best of all: he will rarely face a double team in San Francisco. 

32. Chiefs – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

Hungry for a run at a third straight title, the Chiefs two biggest free agents to decide on are All-Pro DT Chris Jones and CB1 L’Jarius Sneed. Jones I expect they will figure out an extension for, as he is one of the rare DT talents in the league today. Sneed was franchise tagged today and told they will be shopping him to teams. So while filling an outside CB spot is certainly on the to-do list, I have decided to give them a WR in this scenario. To help clear space for Chris Jones, the Chiefs can cut Marquez Valdes-Scantling and save $12 million in cap space. They shouldn’t think twice about that decision. MVS’s role in the offense was a vertical speed threat. Therefore, they will replace him with a player in that same mold. Troy Franklin may have the best vertical speed in this WR class. He is a burner that wins due to a good assortment of releases off the line of scrimmage, and understanding of leverage, and most of all: his wheels. He can get behind anybody and has sure hands when the QB drops it in the bread basket. He is also a good route runner that can win underneath and beat a man to the corner after the catch. He is 6’3” and about 185 lbs. He is not going to win many 50/50 balls nor will he break tackles after the catch. But he will get open, threaten deep, and catch the football. After last regular season, that sounds like a dream for Patrick Mahomes.