Kelley Peter’s Round 1 NFL Mock Draft

We’ve officially made it. Draft Day! Over the next 3 days, teams will make or break their future… no pressure! Enjoy the craziness of the weekend, and try not to crash out too hard. In the words of Dak Prescott’s pre-snap cadence, “Yeahhhhhh HERE WE GOOOOOO…”

  1. Titans – Cam Ward, QB, Miami

This is the worst kept secret at the moment. Tennessee’s QB room is Will Levis, Brandon Allen, and Tim Boyle. Another bad season and the coaching staff could be gone. Titans HC Brian Callahan said he has gone back and watched every zoom meeting he had with Joe Burrow during the 2020 Covid Draft process in preparation for how he wants to develop a young QB. Ward has the best arm in this class. Simply put, he is a playmaker and can extend plays and find completions. While he is not the biggest, the tools are there for a high ceiling QB. Currently, Ward struggles with accuracy down the field and is a bit reckless when it comes to decision making. He puts the ball in harm’s way too often and takes more sacks than he should. Miami ran a lot of RPOs to help ease his decision making at times. Ward has the highest ceiling of any QB in this class, but he is a riskier prospect than many analysts think. The highlights are electric, but Ward is going to have to grow when playing in-structure (which is the majority of snaps for NFL QBs) in order to succeed at the next level. He plays a similar brand to what Caleb Williams was like coming out of USC, just with 80% of the talent. Brian Callahan’s ability to develop him will determine whether he has a future as a Head Coach in this league. 

  1. Browns – Travis Hunter, ATH, Colorado

Cleveland had the worst offense in the NFL last year, scoring just 15.2 points per game. While Abdul Carter is incredible and feels like a can’t miss prospect, the Browns desperately need to add some juice to this offense. At the NFL Combine, Browns GM Andrew Berry says that they see Hunter as a WR first. He clearly passes the eye test at WR, and the numbers love him too. In 2024, he had 96 receptions for 1,258 yards and 15 TDs. He has only 3 drops in 194 targets at the FBS level, can win down the field (11.2 ADOT), wins 50/50 balls (65.5% contested catch rate), and is efficient (2.42 Yards Per Route Run). He can still add polish to his game if he focuses on the position more in the pros, but he can be a playmaker for a team from day 1. He reminds me a lot of Garrett Wilson as a WR. I would expect the Browns to have him play full-time WR from Day 1 and start to work him in at CB more as he gets more comfortable. By all accounts, Hunter is a film nerd and a football junkie. He puts in the work to be able to do what he does both mentally and physically. I am fascinated to see how he is used and how his career goes at the next level.

  1. Giants – Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State

I think the Giants would prefer Travis Hunter here, but Abdul Carter should be the pick if Hunter is gone. Carter is not a perfect fit simply because they already have two lighter EDGEs who are better pass rushers then run defenders in Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. That said, unless a team is offering you a huge trade package to move up, take the best player and figure it out later. Carter is my #1 ranked player in the class. Much like Micah Parsons at Penn State, Abdul Carter was an off-ball LB to start his Penn State career. He was good there, but did most of his damage as a blitzer. This past year, James Franklin finally made the call to play Carter at EDGE. In a bigger sample size of 355 pass rush snaps in 2024, the efficiency remained. Carter posted a 92.2 PFF Pass Rush Grade (1st in the country), along with 66 pressures (2nd), a 22.9% PRWR (3rd), and 13 sacks (5th). In his final college game in the CFP against Notre Dame, Carter played through a shoulder injury and still racked up 8 pressures and a sack. Carter will have to continue to learn and develop on the edge, particularly in the run game, but his athletic traits are rare. Recent history shows that elite EDGE prospects are some of the safer picks at the top of the Draft, and Carter feels like a surefire impact player immediately for the Giants.

  1. Patriots – Will Campbell, OT, LSU

When Mike Vrabel took over in Tennessee in 2018, one of the first moves the organization made was re-signing Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan to a 5/$80 million deal to make him the highest paid OL in history. Lewan, who was an All-American at Michigan, tested with a 10.0 RAS meaning he tested as the most athletic OT in NFL Combine History. At their peak, the Titans built their team around the OL, led by the athletic and nasty Lewan, blocking for Derrick Henry and making the QB’s job easier. Now in his first year in New England, why not try to build it the same way? Will Campbell started at LT all 3 years he was at LSU. He was an All-American and blew up the Combine. Campbell’s 9.91 RAS is the 15th best for an OT ever. In addition to the freaky athleticism, he is incredibly intelligent and is one of the hardest workers and best leaders in this class. The only concern is his lack of length. There’s a chance he struggles to stay at Tackle and is better suited as a Guard. Either way, the Patriots last season had the least talented OL in the league and could use an upgrade at either spot. Adding a tone setter to this room to build around for the next decade can help get the best out of Drake Maye. This just feels like a perfect Vrabel pick. 

  1. Jaguars – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

It appears new HC Liam Coen wants to add a weapon with this pick to help Trevor Lawrence. Tetairoa McMillan has a strong case considering Lawrence’s success throwing to big WRs in the past, but they instead opt for Ashton Jeanty here. Ashton Jeanty had one of the best RB seasons we have ever seen last year. The Heisman runner-up had 2,601 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC and 29 TDs. He had more rushing yards after contact than any other RB had total rushing yards. He set the all-time PFF record for missed tackles forced in a season. In 2023, he led all RBs in receiving yards. His tape looks like an adult playing a bunch of 7-year-olds in the backyard. Jeanty has some of the best contact balance I have ever seen. He routinely bounces off 300-pound lineman and stays on his feet. Anyone concerned about the level of competition just needs to watch Jeanty’s masterclass performance vs. the top ranked Oregon Ducks in Week 2. Jeanty put up 25 carries for 192 yards and 3 TDs on the ground including a 70-yard TD run to tie the game in the 4th quarter. There is no question that he is one of the most talented players in the class. Personally, I would never draft a RB this high purely for the lack of surplus value the position brings. If Jeanty is selected 5th overall, he will enter the league as the 6th highest paid RB per year in the NFL. While there is a good chance that Jeanty will be a top 6 RB, you are not getting a bargain for his services like you are for most positions on rookie deals. For example, if Mason Graham went 5th overall, he would only be the 33rd highest paid DT in the NFL. If he becomes a Pro Bowler at some point during his rookie contract, then he provides immense surplus value for the team. It is an interesting conundrum, but I understand a first time GM and HC wanting to play it safe and get a surefire impact player. The NFL clearly loves Jeanty, and whether it is Jacksonville, Vegas, Chicago, or a team trading up, expect the Boise State star to go in the top 10.

  1. Raiders – Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

In a Defensive Tackle room that included Team Captain and 2024 Top 50 pick Kris Jenkins Jr. and another likely 2025 first round pick in Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham stood out as the clear top player at the position for the national title winning Wolverines in 2023. Every time you turn on the tape, he was in the backfield. It was reminiscent of watching Georgia in 2021. Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt were 2021 first round selections, however it was clear that underclassman Jalen Carter was a more talented and disruptive player. Graham was the highest graded player per PFF on the 2023 national champion squad that was led by their stout defense. While he is not the heaviest or longest DT, his background as a high-level HS heavyweight wrestler helps him win battles with leverage, power, and hand fighting. The two-time All-American has been top 5 in PRWR among DTs each of the past two seasons, and his 92.6 Run Defense Grade led all DL in 2024. Still only 21 years old, Graham is an extremely high floor prospect that has legitimate Pro Bowl potential at the next level. He should be a plus starter from day 1. Vegas can turn their DL into the identity of the team with Graham teaming up with Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins, and Malcolm Koonce.

  1. Jets – Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

The Jets are in a rebuild post-Rodgers, but the OL already has a lot of pieces to build around. Last year’s first round pick LT Olu Fashanu will start full-time this year. 2021 1st Rounder Alijah Vera-Tucker is one of the most consistent Guards in the league when healthy. Joe Tippman took a step at Center last year and John Simpson and Josh Myers give the Jets an abundance of solid options inside. All that is missing is a Right Tackle. Armand Membou, my top ranked OT in this class, would be a seamless fit and turn the Jets into one of the most exciting young OLs in football. Membou, a former high school tennis player who put on about 100 pounds during Covid to play football, came into his own this year. His 90.6 PFF Blocking Grade in 2024 was 3rd best in the nation. The film is as fantastic as the numbers are. A massive 332 pounds, Membou moves like a man at least 50 pounds lighter. At the Combine, he finished with an elite 9.89 RAS (Relative Athletic Score). His 34-inch vertical jump is the best for a 330-pound OL prospect ever. His 9’7” inch broad jump ties future HOFer Jason Peters for the longest ever for a 330-pounder. His 4.91 40-time is the fastest by a 330-pound OL prospect since 2003. Simply put, Membou is one of the freakiest athletes we have ever seen at OT and has the film and numbers to back it up. Membou just turned 21 last month and is still relatively new to football. If we look back in 10 years and he ends up being the best player in this class, it will not surprise me. Jets new HC Aaron Glenn just saw what a dominant OL can do for a team in Detroit. Why not try to build your own in New York?

  1. Panthers – Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia

In 2024, the Carolina Panthers allowed more points in a season than any team in NFL history. It may be a good idea to add to the defense! Jalon Walker is a polarizing player in this class. It seems like the NFL is higher on him than I am. Walker is a hybrid LB/EDGE player. When you watch him, the first thing that stands out is his elite pursuit speed. When he locks on a target with open space in front of him, he will chase them down in the blink of an eye. He is not very polished at a lot of the LB responsibilities, particularly in coverage, so most experts want to put him at EDGE. The problem with that is his measurables. Among all EDGE prospects, Walker has 2nd percentile height, 6th percentile weight, and 6th percentile arm length. He often won on pure athleticism, speed, and power when rushing the QB at Georgia. It is harder to rely on just that when NFL OTs are bigger, longer, stronger, and more agile. There have been smaller EDGEs that have been successful, but Walker would certainly be an outlier in a lot of ways. According to Kirby Smart, Jalon Walker is an incredible leader and was voted a Captain by over 95% of his teammates. The son of a successful HS and college coach, Walker has grown up around the game. The intangibles and athleticism are elite. It is hard to project exactly how Walker will fit in the NFL, but if the right coach gets ahold of him, the ceiling is very high. The Panthers take a swing on a high upside playmaker who is also a great leader to build around.

  1. Saints – Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

With reports that Derek Carr is contemplating shoulder surgery that would knock him out for the season, many have penciled in New Orleans for Shedeur Sanders here. However, they did not send HC Kellen Moore or OC Doug Nussmeier to Colorado’s Pro Day, and I’ve heard they are much more interested in targeting Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough in Round 2. The Saints have an aging roster and are in cap hell and should focus on adding young talent to the roster at premium positions rather than reaching for a QB. They opt instead for Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams. Legendary DE Cam Jordan turns 36 and July and probably only has another year or two left. Mykel is built like a perfect understudy for Jordan. At 6’5”, 260 pounds with 34-inch arms and big hands, Mykel was built in a lab to be an NFL Defensive End. A former 5-star recruit who flashed in big moments as a true freshman, everyone eagerly awaited Williams taking the next step for the past two years. It never happened. He had solid, but not elite production in 2023, and in 2024 he injured his ankle early in the season and reportedly played through it all year. Williams’ production all 3 years is about even across the board. He knows how to use his length and is an elite run defender on the edge. He has the length and strength to set the edge, but he also has the quickness to knife into the backfield and make tackles as well. As a pass rusher, you wish he had more bend at the top of his rush. He doesn’t use a ton of moves and isn’t the quickest laterally as a rusher. He is still raw in that area but can win using stunts and sometimes just long arming his way there. His best finesse rush came on a euro-step move to beat Kelvin Banks Jr. in the first matchup with Georgia in 2024. You’d love to see him be comfortable doing that more. Ultimately, I see Williams’ upside as a good #2 EDGE who is a terrific run defender and can work his way into 6-8 sacks a year on physical gifts and motor, but it is hard to see him becoming an elite EDGE. In a class short on blue chip talent, it seems like the NFL is higher on the size and floor Mykel Williams can give than I am.

  1. Bears – Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

There is a lot of directions Chicago could go with this pick. No one stands out as an obvious pick with the current board. If one of Membou or Campbell falls here, picking them to play LT and solidifying a potential high end 5-man OL unit feels like a best case scenario. There is also plenty of Jeanty buzz with new HC Ben Johnson coming from Detroit, where top 12 pick Jahmyr Gibbs was a gamebreaker for the Lions. However, with none of those 3 available, going best player available feels like the smartest play. For me, that’s Tyler Warren. Warren exploded in 2024. He had 104 receptions for 1,233 yards and 8 TDs as a receiver and also did damage as a wildcat QB tallying 26 carries for 218 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. Penn State knew he was their best weapon and made it a mission to get the ball in his hands as often as possible. Whether it is a run, a screen or underneath pass, an over route, or a go ball, Warren can win. When in doubt, throw it up to him. Warren caught 13 of 21 (61.9%) passes in contested catch situations. He had some untimely drops in previous years, but this year he had just a 2.9% drop rate. Warren is at his best with the ball in his hands. He is fast and dynamic in the open field, happy to run guys over or run past them. He is equally good in-line or from the slot. His 2.78 YPRR (yards per route run) was 12th best in the country for any pass catcher and 2nd best among TEs. As a blocker he shows flashes of great play but is still inconsistent. However, his 6’5.5”, 255-pound frame gives him plenty of upside as a blocker. Warren can make any offense better. New Bears HC Ben Johnson ran a ton of 2 TE sets in Detroit and could use Warren as a swiss army knife, finding creative ways to get the ball in his hands. His dominance as a contested catch player and YAC threat would give Chicago some easy offense in multiple facets. 

  1. 49ers – Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

When you think of the elite 49ers teams of the past few years, a dominant DL comes to mind. Those days are gone. They still have former DPOY Nick Bosa on the edge, but he is really it. Their current starting DTs are Jordan Elliot, who has graded in the 40s the last 4 seasons per PFF, and Evan Anderson who was an undrafted free agent for San Fran last year. This is comfortably the worst DT room in football. In a great DT class, they should be drafting two. Let’s start with one who has true DT1 potential in Walter Nolen. Nolen, the former #2 overall recruit in the country, truly broke out this season at Ole Miss. Robert Saleh is back in the Bay Area as DC, and he loves athletic penetrating DTs. Nolen is a touch undersized but uber explosive off the line of scrimmage and makes a ton of plays in the backfield. He led the SEC with 26 run stops in 2024 and had his most productive season as a pass rusher. If you want a bigger DT that can take on double teams and read and react, Nolen may not be your cup of tea, but he can thrive in Saleh’s attacking system. San Francisco brought Nolen in on a 30 visit and seems very interested in what he can bring. This class is surprisingly deep at Nose Tackle. The 49ers grab Nolen here and go get a big man that can hold the point of attack in the middle rounds. 

  1. Cowboys – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

Ceedee Lamb is one of the best WRs in football, but the Cowboys’ secondary weapons are an embarrassment. As it stands, their WR2 and WR3 are Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo. If you want to be a serious offense, this must be upgraded in a big way. Dallas has their pick of the litter here with pass catchers and go with Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona. Draft analysts have continued to move McMillan down boards throughout this process, but I still see him as an obvious top 10 talent in this class. The 6’4”, 220-pound WR has averaged 108+ receiving yards per game in each of the last two seasons and is still just 21 years old. He was actually in the same graduating class at Servite High School as Mason Graham. At Servite, McMillan was named Orange County boys athlete of the year as a junior and was a 3-sport star in football, basketball, and volleyball. In volleyball, he was an All-Conference player as an Opposite Hitter where he used his size and superb leaping ability to set school records in kills for a state semi-finalist squad. McMillan was even better in football, playing both ways as a WR and Safety. In 13 games his senior season, he tallied 88 receptions, 1,302 receiving yards, and 18 TDs on offense and added 8 interceptions on defense. He was named California Gatorade Player of the Year. McMillan was the highest ranked recruit in Arizona Wildcats history and dominated every chance he got there. The volleyball background shows up in his leaping ability where he is a monster at contested catches. Many underrate his ability after the catch, where he glides with the ball in his hands past DBs. McMillan is a true X receiver that will make a living on the outside, so Dallas is free to move Lamb around the formation however they want. Adding a real #2 option in this offense would do wonders for both Dak and Ceedee.

  1. Dolphins – Kelvin Banks Jr., OL, Texas

The Dolphins’ OL has been an issue for years. Like Many Shanahan disciples, Mike McDaniel feels like their offensive scheme can negate a lot of the issues of poor OL play. While the scheme may help that unit, it cannot work miracles. The retirement of LT Terron Armstead this offseason only amplifies the issues. Not to mention, franchise QB Tua Tagovailoa has dealt with repeated injury issues. The time is now to address the OL. Kelvin Banks Jr. is a perfect fit for Miami. Banks is a former 5-star recruit who won the starting LT job at Texas as a true freshman and never gave it back. His pass blocking efficiency was among the best in the nation in 2024. Banks moves well and is great in the screen game and in the run game. The system he ran under Sark at Texas is full of RPOs, screens, and outside runs which is exactly what McDaniel’s offense in Miami is built on. Banks is a seamless fit to move to LG and replace Liam Eichenberg immediately, and if 2nd year LT Patrick Paul has issues, Banks is more than capable of moving back out to LT. The talent and fit line up perfectly here for the Dolphins.

  1. Colts – Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

Chris Ballard values athleticism more than any GM in the NFL. Indianapolis routinely takes one of the highest average RAS (Relative Athletic Score) classes every year. Well there is no one in this class that fits that mold better than Shemar Stewart. The 6’5”, 267-pound DE checked in with a perfect 10.0 RAS, the highest ever at the DE position. He is 90th percentile or better in wingspan, vertical jump, broad jump, 10-yard split, and 40-yard dash. Pretty much every DE prospect with Stewart’s elite size and RAS combination has turned out to be a good pro. The question lies in the lack of production. Stewart never had more than 1.5 sacks in any season at A&M. The underlying stats like PRWR are also lacking. Some of this can be explained by the Aggies using him as a 4i lining up inside the Tackle sometimes and asking him to defend the run first or contain. He did not get to pin his ears back from a wide 9 alignment nearly as often as most of the other top EDGEs in this class. He sets a great edge in the run game with powerful hands. However, his run stop rate is far too low for a player of his ability. He routinely fails to wrap up ball carriers and often seems to be unaware of where the ball is on plays. Stewart is such an interesting player. He can toss OTs around for fun, but many times looks like he is not entirely sure what he is doing or where his eyes should be to make impact plays. His ceiling is very high, but coaches have to do a great job helping him improve. It will probably take him a couple years to become the player you hope for when drafting him. I do not see Stewart ever being an elite pass rusher, but if he develops, he could be one of the league’s elite run defenders and a solid pass rusher. Jadeveon Clowney and Travon Walker are two names that come to mind when I think of his potential trajectory. If he can hit that level, he is worth the 14th pick. 

  1. Falcons – Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall

The Falcons have needed more pass rush for about a decade, and yet they always just take skill positions Round 1. This is the year that changes! While a lot of Falcons/Bulldogs fans would be more excited by the local products Jalon Walker and Mykel Williams, the best pure pass rusher that could be available at 15 is Mike Green. The Marshall product is one of the bendiest and most explosive EDGEs in this class. His 6.85 3-cone (96th percentile) and 4.25 short shuttle (84th percentile) back up those claims. Unlike some in this class, Green does not just rely on his athleticism to win as a pass rusher, he also has arguably the deepest bags of moves in the class. He has a nasty spin move, a cross-chop, ghost move, two-hand swipe, and a bull rush. He keeps OTs guessing on every snap and knows when to use the right move. Green was very productive in limited snaps as a pass rusher in 2023. He was a full-time starter in 2024 and was even more productive in nearly twice as many sacks. He led the country with 17 sacks and his 91.4 PFF Pass Rush grade ranked 3rd among all EDGEs. Despite being a bit undersized, Green also led all EDGEs with both a 90.2 Run Defense Grade and 32 run stops. Because of his size, he is not the best at setting the EDGE, but he will fight his hardest to fight through blocks. He uses his pursuit speed to make plays from the backside of run plays. He also is happy to throw his weight into TEs coming across the formation to try and blow up run lanes. Green was a top 3 state finalist twice as a high school wrestler (his sophomore year at 185-pounds and his junior year at 220-pounds) and it shows in the run game. His motor is full throttle at all times. He has short arms and small hands, but that is less of a concern in a 3-4 defense like Atlanta has. The only major concern stopping Green from being a top 10 lock is off the field concerns. Green was dismissed from the Virginia football program due to an off-field issue. No charges were filed, and no further issues have popped up since the incident at UVA. Both Marshall and Virginia coaches rave about Green both on the field and as a teammate, but there is no doubt that NFL teams are doing their homework to dig in further on Green and try to find out if this will be an issue moving forward. If they feel good about him, he will undoubtedly be a top 20 pick, and should contribute as a pass rusher from day 1.

  1. Cardinals – Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

Heading into the offseason, it was apparent that Arizona had glaring needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball. To their credit, they did well to address the DL. At DT they signed an old friend Calais Campbell (who is still playing very well) along with NT Dalvin Tomlinson. Those two will complement 2024 first round pick Darius Robinson inside. At EDGE, they brought back Baron Browning and paid up for the top free agent at the position in Josh Sweat, who HC Jonathan Gannon coached in Philly. They also have Zaven Collins and BJ Ojulari as solid depth there. Because of these moves, the biggest need is improving the OL. This offseason, Arizona hired Justin Frye to be their new OL Coach. Frye spent the last 3 years coaching OL at Ohio State. His first year with the Buckeyes, he coached Cardinals’ 3rd year LT Paris Johnson Jr., who quietly acquitted himself as one of the best young Tackles in all of football last year. In the two seasons since, he has coached Josh Simmons at LT. An SDSU transfer, Simmons has a solid first year in Columbus in 2023. In 2024, he came into his own and was playing at an elite level before a leg injury against Oregon knocked him out for the year. The film that Simmons put out in the 5.5 games he did play will make him a first rounder regardless. The numbers back up the tape. In 158 pass blocking snaps this year, Simmons allowed just 1 hurry, 0 QB hits, and 0 sacks for a grand total of 1 pressure. Simmons combines size with great movement ability and advanced technique. He shows power and nastiness as a finisher. You wish you got to see him against some of the elite EDGEs the Buckeyes played down the stretch in 2024, but the tools and film would be enough to put him in the discussion for the first OT off the board if he was fully healthy. No one has better access to Simmons’ medicals and recovery than Frye. He went through some on-field drills at Ohio State’s pro day and seems to be on-track for the season. Having two great Buckeye OTs on either side (Simmons played RT at San Diego State, so he should be able to flip back over comfortably) lets Arizona move Jonah Williams to Guard and improve the OL as whole. Playing for the same OL Coach should allow Josh Simmons to hit the ground running in 2025.

  1. Bengals – Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

Anyone that read my Bengals 7 Round Mock Draft article a couple weeks ago will not be surprised with my pick here. For an even deeper dive into Harmon’s scouting report, check out that article. I think the top of the Bengals board will likely be full of Defensive Linemen. Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Shemar Stewart, and Mike Green feel like top contenders. Harmon is my favorite of the group with Nolen and Green closely behind, and with both of the other two off the board in this scenario, the choice was clear. Harmon has a rare blend of elite size and length combined with explosiveness to create havoc in the backfield. Some pass rushing DTs are pure gap shooters. Harmon can very well do that at a high level, but he also can two-gap, peek, and shed in the run game. He can anchor at the point of attack. He can do the dirty work to keep the LBs clean to make plays. On passing downs, he can bull rush or use his hands to win with finesse to get by Guards. He led all DTs in pressures by a significant margin in 2024. He is not the most agile or bendy player, but he is too long, strong, and physical to block in most situations. How he wins will translate well to the next level. Lance Zierlein of NFL Network talked to an anonymous NFC Executive who described Harmon as follows: “He plays like a Raven or a Steeler. Off the tape, he reminds me of a young Cam Heyward but bigger.” The scout is spot-on. With his size, play strength, physicality, grit, and explosiveness, he plays exactly like a Raven or Steeler. And it’s about damn time that the Bengals start drafting some trench players that play like that. 

  1. Seahawks – Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

Nick Emmanwori is one of the most fun players in this class. The 6’3”, 220-pound Safety lit up the Combine with a 4.38 40-time and a 43-inch Vertical Jump on his way to a perfect 10.0 RAS. He is simply a freak. I think in some ways; the elite testing has almost hurt the opinion of Emmanwori from casual fans. Many say, “oh he is just a Combine Warrior being pushed up to Round 1.” I have had Emmanwori as a first-round player since well before the Combine. People are just finally catching up now that they see the numbers. It is clear watching the tape that he is an elite athlete on the field. But unlike many freak athletes, he is also a very good football player. The 21-year-old was a Team Captain this year for the Gamecocks. He had 88 tackles, and 4 interceptions this year, returning 3 of them for TDs (although 1 of those returns was called back for a crackback block on a QB). What makes Emmanwori great is he does not just rely on traits to make him great. The Athletic’s College Football Insider Bruce Feldman wrote “Inside the Gamecocks program, Emmanwori was known as ‘Nick the Eraser.’ As freakish as Emmanwori is, his coaches say the things that impress them most are his football IQ and ability to retain information.” South Carolina used him in a variety of different roles ranging from single high safety to two high safety to box player to slot defender. He excelled in a variety of roles. Some of his most impressive reps came as a box/slot player in man coverage against TE and slot WRs. He is surprisingly agile enough to stay with smaller slot WRs in man. Emmanwori is a sure tackler although he will sometimes be late to trigger downhill or take a bad angle leading to extra yards. Seahawks HC Mike McDonald was DC in Baltimore when they drafted ND oversized Safety Kyle Hamilton. McDonald used Hamilton in a similar hybrid Box Safety/Slot CB role and immediately saw Hamilton become one of the league’s top DBs. While not the same player, giving McDonald an elite athlete who has excelled in similar alignments in college feels like a perfect match, and I trust him to get the most out of this unique player.

  1. Buccaneers – Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

It would not shock me at all if Jihaad Campbell went before this. Frankly the Buccaneers feel like his floor. Tampa Bay needs help all across the defense, and Campbell can help in a variety of ways. An elite athlete at the LB position, Campbell was originally recruited to be an EDGE out of high school. In a crowded EDGE room with high NFL picks such as Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner, and Chris Braswell, the Crimson Tide staff saw the easiest route to get Campbell on the field early at Linebacker. Unlike most players, he made the transition look easy and flourished in his new role. Campbell uses his background at EDGE to be a lethal blitzer. Alabama would sometimes align him as a true DE but typically send him on blitzes from a variety of different spots. His pressure rate was among the highest at any position. He is also a great tackler with one of the lowest missed tackle rates of any LB in the class. The surprising part with Campbell is how good he is in coverage. For a player with no coverage experience prior to college, he looked incredibly fluid and aware in his assignments this year. He takes away throws underneath and has the speed to carry slot guys running the seam in Cover 2. There are still moments where his instincts look a half step behind and he sometimes struggles to get off blocks, but all the tools are there for him to be a top LB at the next level. I rarely think a LB is worth a Round 1 selection with how much the position has changed (for the worse) at the college level, but Campbell is a top half of Day 1 player. The only thing hurting his stock at the moment is a torn labrum that he had surgery on after the Combine. He will likely miss camp and the first few weeks of the 2025 season. That should not stop a team like the Bucs from passing on a player with the long-term upside he has. The best part is in Tampa he can learn from one of the best LBs of this generation in Lavonte David. This feels like a no-brainer if he is available.

  1. Broncos – TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

*Bill Simmons reacting to Anthony Bennett going #1 overall voice* “WOAH!” The first huge stunner. Earlier this offseason, Sean Payton mentioned wanting to add a “Joker” to this offense which he described as a RB or TE that can be a mismatch player in the passing game. Henderson fits the bill better than any RB in this class. Two words come to mind when I think of TreVeyon Henderson: reliable and explosive. A 4-year contributor for the Buckeyes, Henderson fumbled just two times in 4 years with 0 fumbles in his final two seasons. Despite not being the biggest RB, Henderson is one of the top pass protecting backs in the class. Not only is he solid, he wants to put blitzers on the ground when he meets them. He is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Ohio State used him in the screen game (just ask Texas) and running a variety of routes to beat LBs at the second level. He is comfortable running routes and has sure hands. A high school state champion sprinter, Henderson has plenty of juice to break off huge runs on the ground and through the air. If you let him beat you to the corner on an outside run, he’s gone. Many will cite Henderson’s inability to be a workhorse as a reason he shouldn’t go nearly this high (he dealt with injuries in 2022 and 2023 and was back to his best in 2024 in a split backfield). I don’t think that will stop Sean Payton, who got the best out of a young Alvin Kamara as a “Joker” when sharing the backfield with Mark Ingram. Keep Henderson fresh and let him do what he does best. Henderson doesn’t mind sharing the work. Henderson told Ryan Day to do “what is best for the team” when he asked him if he was okay with Ohio State pursuing two-time 1st Team All-SEC RB Quinshon Judkins in the transfer portal. Voted a Team Captain by his teammates in 2024, Henderson is a respected leader in the locker room. Off the field, he is a man of faith and used his NIL money to help his mother retire from working. People will be shocked if he goes this high, but Henderson checks so many boxes that NFL teams look for. Don’t be surprised if Sean Payton sees him as a perfect fit in Denver. 

21. Steelers – Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and very non-committal to playing in 2025. What he decides is unlikely to change the Steelers’ mind with this pick. If there is a QB available that they like, they will pull the trigger. Shedeur Sanders feels like the one they like the best. It’s funny that Sanders is such a hotly debated topic, when in reality it seems pretty clear that he is not a polarizing player. He is a high floor, low ceiling QB that relies on intelligence and accuracy while lacking the high-end athletic traits. He took far too many sacks at Colorado playing behind a makeshift OL. He is a bit undersized but tough as nails and gets up from some crushing blows. I think there is a lot of Teddy Bridgewater, Geno Smith, and Brock Purdy to his game. He likely never sniffs the elite QB tier, but I could see him peaking as a top 12ish QB if all goes right. The Steelers have won with far worse players under center than that, and if he can hit that level early in his career (a la Bo Nix in Denver), that becomes a great value on a rookie deal.

  1. Chargers – Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

It will be slightly surprising if Colston Loveland falls this far, but if he does you better believe his old college coach will be happy to reunite with him. In Harbaugh’s final season at Michigan, Loveland was a 2nd Team All-American as a 19-year-old. His fluid movement ability is rare for a player of his stature (6’6”, 248). His route running passes the “WR test” which basically means that he is a dangerous enough receiver to justify putting him on the field instead of your WR3. Michigan moved him all around, lining him up out wide and in the slot in addition to his in-line work. Loveland had no issue getting open vs. CBs. Michigan asked him to do more as a blocker than most young TEs and he had no issue getting after it as a blocker. As he continues to grow into his frame, he has potential to be a plus blocker in addition to a matchup problem in the receiving game. Giving Justin Herbert another weapon to add to Ladd McConkey’s terrific rookie year makes this offense way more lethal. Still just 21 at a position that rarely sees such young talent, Loveland’s best football is ahead of him. 

  1. Packers – Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

The Packers have shopped veteran CB Jaire Alexander, and there does not appear to be a ton of interest. The end is near, and Green Bay could use an upgrade from the rest of their CB room. Thought by many to be a top 5 pick heading into the year, an up-and-down season paired with injury has led to Johnson falling for most experts. He looked a lot better as a true freshman and sophomore for the Wolverines. A 5-star recruit whose dad played DB for Michigan in the 90’s and now runs a 7-on-7 academy in Detroit, Will Johnson has the pedigree of an elite CB. The 2023 1st team All-American has a knack for making splash plays in big games including a pick on Aidan O’Connell in the 2022 Big 10 Title Game, a pick on Kyle McCord in “The Game” in 2023, and an interception on Michael Penix in the national championship victory. The biggest knocks on him are a lack of speed (he elected to not run the 40) and a spotty injury history. Johnson also gambles more than you’d like, which leads to big plays, but can also lead to getting burned on double moves. He is a better zone CB than a man CB. While he is not the elite prospect that many hoped for, he can be an impact starter right away for the Packers.

*TRADE* The Chiefs trade picks 31 and 95 to the Vikings for pick 24

  1. Chiefs – Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon

There were reports last year that the Chiefs were attempting to trade up in front of the Bengals to select Amarius Mims. After another year of OL issues, amplified by a thrashing by the Eagles in the Super Bowl and trading away All-Pro Joe Thuney, the Chiefs should again be looking to attack OL. Signing career backup OT Jaylen Moore to $15 million a year does not change anything for me, especially when Jawaan Taylor is still struggling at RT. There are already reports that Kansas City is exploring trade up possibilities. Getting ahead of the Houston Texans at 25, who just traded away Laremy Tunsil and have problems on the interior as well, seems smart if there is a certain OL in mind that they want. Josh Conerly Jr. is the last true OT on the board with a first-round grade for me. The former 5-star OT is an extremely athletic big man who can effortlessly mirror EDGEs. While he has always been a fluid mover, Conerly started playing his best football from a strength and anchor perspective during the second half of the 2024 season. His best game came in the Big 10 Championship against Penn State’s Abdul Carter, a performance that is sure to raise him up scout’s boards. Still only 21, Conerly has massive potential as he continues to learn to use his strength in addition to his other athletic gifts. Taking him to protect Patrick Mahomes’ blindside for the next decade is a worthwhile investment.

  1. Texans – Tyler Booker, G, Alabama

It’s no secret that the Texans need OL help. Not only did their Guards cave in on CJ Stroud nearly every week last season, now they have also traded away their All-Pro Left Tackle. Every position up front for them could use an upgrade, so taking the best OL available feels like a must. The word is that Kelvin Banks Jr. and Tyler Booker are their two favorites. With Banks off the board, Booker appears to be their clear top option. Booker, who just turned 21 a week ago, was a 1st Team All-American at LG for the Tide in 2024. Booker is a massive 6’4”, 326-pounds (he played at 340+) and his 34⅞-inch arms are 93rd percentile among Guards. Booker is a classic old-school mauler. He uses his length and strength to flatten guys in the run game and he is a nasty finisher, always playing to and through the whistle. When he does not have a rusher in front of him, he is looking for work and drills unsuspecting rushers while they are engaged with a different OL. In pass protection, he has arguably the strongest anchor I have ever seen from a Guard. He is an impenetrable wall with elite grip strength and keeps a very firm pocket for his QB. The major weakness of Booker is his lack of quickness and overall athleticism. Unathletic Guards drafted in the first two rounds have an extremely bad history of working out. It is a scary profile to bet on. Booker’s 10-yard split is one of the 5 slowest this century for a Guard. This can show up when quicker blitzers (often blitzing LBs) dart across his face or when he is late to pick up a stunt. A lot of times, his high IQ can diagnose these and beat them to the spot, but a lot of his losses came that way. If you are a team that wants to run a lot of outside zone, he is probably not nimble enough for what you are looking for at the position. However, if you run primarily gap scheme power runs and want a firm pocket for your QB, he is a strong scheme fit. Houston said part of the reason they traded Tunsil is they didn’t feel he was a leader in an OL room that lacked one. Tyler Booker can be that player. A team captain at Alabama as an underclassman, Booker is a natural born leader who is extremely well respected by the Alabama program. The Athletic’s lead draft expert Dane Brugler heard from an NFL scout about Booker “He keeps everyone accountable in that locker room. … After (Alabama’s) Vandy loss, ‘Book’ was the guy who got everyone back on track.” His lack of quickness and agility may cap his ceiling overall. However, with his nastiness on the field and leadership in the locker room, Tyler Booker can be the identity of the Texans OL unit for years to come.

  1. Rams – Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

This feels like the furthest Barron could fall, and I could see him going as high as 7 to the Jets. Some teams will love Barron, and others will not even have him on their board. His size is and length is the main negative. Barron is only 5′ 10¾” and his 29⅝” are 3rd percentile for a DB. Particularly at outside CB, there is not a great history of CBs with such short arms. Many teams have certain height and arm length thresholds for CBs that he likely will not fit. Other teams will only care about the film, and Barron can play. He was originally a hybrid box safety/slot CB for two seasons and excelled in that role. Texas moved him to outside corner prior to the 2024 season and Barron had his best season yet. Playing primarily zone coverage, Barron was lockdown with 16 PBUs and 5 interceptions (both career highs). Texas used him in a variety of ways over the years including Tight End eraser, deep safety, slot, and outside and he made plays at every spot. His 4.39 40-time at the Combine silenced any doubts about his long speed. His size, arm length, speed, and film is extremely similar to Chiefs 2022 1st Round pick Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has split time between slot and outside CB for Kansas City and has been an All-Pro in each of the last two seasons. Neither is a prototypical press-man CB, but both are versatile playmakers in the back end. The Rams have found success over the past few drafts taking guys who feel for length, age, or competition level issues. All they care about is finding good football players. Barron is a perfect fit in LA.

  1. Ravens – Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

The Ravens work the Draft better than any team in the league. They use free agency to ensure they have no glaring holes on the roster, utilize the compensatory pick formula to ensure they have more draft picks than anyone, then they simply take the consensus highest ranked player on the board regardless of positional value or need. It is how they got All-Pro Safety Kyle Hamilton and Pro Bowl Center Tyler Linderbaum in the same draft. They do it again here with Malaki Starks. Starks, who has started for Georgia since the day he walked on campus, was a projected Top 10 pick heading into the season. He is unquestionably one of the 20 best players in this class, but people not valuing Safeties highly and hype of other players has led to Starks falling down boards. Coaches and teammates at Georgia view him as an incredible leader who always holds himself and teammates accountable. He has the range and tackling ability to play a variety of roles for a defense. He is at his best as a deep Safety where he can read QBs and fly downhill to make plays from depth. It is a perfect fit with Hamilton who excels as a jumbo overhang player in the box/slot. They are two of the best Safety prospects in recent memory and putting them together will make everyone around them better and create even more splash plays and turnovers. The rest of the NFL will regret letting Starks fall if he ends up in Baltimore.

  1. Lions – Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

It may look weird to see the Lions, who have some of the best skill players in the league, taking a WR here, but hear me out. Jameson Williams is in the last year of his rookie deal. He has already missed time with injuries, a gambling suspension, and a PED suspension. While he is electric, that may give some pause to a long-term deal. Then consider that Detroit has recently extended Jared Goff, Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Kerby Joseph. In the next year or two, the Lions will likely be giving extensions to Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Jack Campbell. All of whom are probably more worthy than Williams. I’m not saying it’s a foregone conclusion, but if there is a chance that Jameson Williams is the odd man out, then Matthew Golden would be an ideal replacement one year early. Golden’s 4.29 speed can stretch the field similar to Williams, and like Williams, Golden is at his best after the catch where his stop-and-start ability can freeze tacklers. Golden routinely showed up in the biggest games for Texas. He does not have the production profile you typically look for in a first round WR and needs to improve his route running, but there is reason to believe his best football is ahead of him. Adding him to this Detroit offense could keep the firepower in place regardless of Williams’ future. With the DL class being as deep as it is, Detroit can still grab a good EDGE at pick 60.

  1. Commanders – Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky

Maxwell Hairston is a name that has been higher in league circles than media ones for the entire process. We saw part of the reason why at the Combine when Hairston ran a blazing 4.28 40-time. The speed certainly shows up on the field. Hairston is rarely ever beaten deep and has the recovery speed to catch up even when he does get routed up. He is not the biggest Corner, but his size, length, and speed are nearly identical to Pro Bowler Denzel Ward. Like Ward, Hairston uses his size well and holds his own on the outside. Washington’s outside CBs were among the worst in football last year, so finding a talent like Hairston would solve some issues immediately for a team looking to contend. 

  1. Bills – Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

The Bills could go a number of directions with this pick, CB and WR come to mind, but I cannot imagine a more perfect fit than Kenneth Grant making it to pick 30. DaQuan Jones is 33 and while undersized Ed Oliver is a great interior pass rusher, he still struggles to hold up against the run. Insert 6’4”, 331-pound Nose Tackle Kenneth Grant. After being a key piece on the 2023 Wolverine national champion team, Grant was even better in 2024. He posted an elite 87.5 PFF Run Defense Grade. He had 22 run stops and constantly ate doubles teams, leaving 1-on-1s for Mason Graham, who always wins that matchup. Grant can do the same for the dynamic Oliver. What makes Grant unique is the upside. He is a plus athlete at his massive size and shows flashes of impressive pass rush ability. These flashes are far too inconsistent currently but seeing them on tape means you know he is capable of more. If Buffalo’s staff can teach him to be more consistent and use his natural power more as a rusher, he can be a true game wrecker as a rare Nose Tackle who can pressure the QB. If he never fully figures it out, he at least can be the stout run defender that Buffalo has craved for a while. 

*TRADE* The Giants trade picks 34 and 105 to the Vikings for picks 31 and 139.

  1. Giants – Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss

The Giants spent the last week of the draft process going to private workouts for all of the second tier of QBs in this class. While some assumed they were looking at Shedeur for pick 3, I think it is far more likely that they expect Sanders and Dart to drop to the late 1st, giving them a chance to grab a blue-chip player at 3, then trade back into the first for a QB. If they do so, Jaxson Dart is likely Daboll’s preference over Sanders. Dart has the tools to be a successful starter at the next level. He is mobile with an NFL arm and shows the necessary accuracy to find completions. However, he will have a large learning curve in the league due to playing in a very QB-friendly Lane Kiffin offense at Ole Miss. Dart typically had one read and was not asked to make tight window throws. He will need to sit and learn how to run an NFL offense, but the Giants have the QB room to let him do just that in year 1. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston should handle all the starting snaps in 2025 and let Daboll earn his paycheck behind the scenes teaching Dart. There is a lot of projection here, but if the Giants can get the most out of Dart, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen might just save their jobs.

  1. Eagles – James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee

I said it in the “What We Would We Do” Mock and I will say it again: James Pearce Jr. feels like such an Eagle. He has ranked top 3 among P5 EDGEs in each of the past two seasons in Pass Rush Win Rate. At the Combine he ran a 4.47 40-time (97th percentile). The athleticism and production is among the best in the class. The run defense is a question mark. Pearce is a tall, thin EDGE that can get washed out of the frontside of plays. He uses his pursuit speed to make some plays unblocked on the backside, but the size is a worry as an every down player. The other concern is his football character. Scouts reportedly are unsure how much he loves football and how coachable he is. The Eagles have made a living on taking players sliding down the board for character and size concerns. They do it again here where they can get the best out of Pearce as a designated pass rusher early in his career. He can provide some juice lost with the departure of Josh Sweat. Philly has never minded lighter EDGEs.  Haason Reddick, Nolan Smith, and Jalyx Hunt have all been extremely productive at similar sizes due to elite speed. Howie does it again by adding a top 15 talent in this draft.

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